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Yoğun Bakım Ünitesinde Hasta Kalış Süresinin Karma Dağılım ile Modellenmesi Skip to content Yıl 2024, Cilt: 39 Sayı: 2, 427 – 436, 11.07.2024
Selin Saraç Güleryüz
https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaumfd.1514433
Öz Intensive care units play a central role in the healthcare system, and the length of stay in hospitals serves as a significant indicator of hospital management quality. Statistical characterization of patient lengths of stay is essential in areas such as simulation, scheduling, and planning. However, these data are often highly skewed, making statistical modeling a challenging task. Mixture distribution models are capable of overcoming this challenge. In this study, a mixture distribution approach was employed to model the highly skewed patient length of stay data observed in two different intensive care units (general surgery, coronary). Four different distributions (normal, Weibull, gamma, lognormal) were used to develop mixture distribution models. The optimal number of components for the mixture distribution was determined using the Bayesian information criterion value, and distribution parameters were estimated using the expectation-maximization algorithm. The validity of the mixture distribution was evaluated using mean absolute percentage error and R-squared value, demonstrating its ability to represent real datasets with high accuracy.
Anahtar Kelimeler Length of stay, Performance metrics, Mixture distribution, Prediction, Intensive care unit
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The Computer Journal, 41(8), 578-588. 32. Sin, C.Y., White, H., 1996. Information Criteria for Selecting Possibly Misspecified Parametric Models. Journal of Econometrics, 71(1-2), 207-225. 33. Akaike, H., 1974. A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19(6), 716-723. 34. Schwarz, G., 1978. Estimating the Dimension of a Model. Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461-464. 35. Dempster, A., Laird, N., Rubin, D., 1977. Maximum Likelihood from Incomplete Data via the EM Algorithm (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Methodological) 39(1), 1-38. 36. McLachlan, G., Peel, D., 2000. Finite Mixture Models. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York, 464. 37. Lewis, C.D., 1982. Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods. Butterworths, Londra, 40. 38. Steel, R.G, Torrie, J.H., 1960. Principles and Procedures of Statistics with Special Reference to the Biological Sciences. McGraw Hill, New York, 481. 39. Nas, S., Koyuncu, M., 2019. Emergency Department Capacity Planning: A Recurrent Neural Network and Simulation Approach. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 40. Antmen, F.Z., Oğulata, S.N., 2013. The Capacity Planning of Intensive Care Units via Simulation: A Case Study in University Hospital. International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 51(21), 214-235. 41. Snedecor, G.W., Cochran, W.G., 1991. Statistical Methods, 8th Edition. Iowa State University Press, Ames, 524. 42. Keribin, C., 2000. Consistent Estimation of the Order of Mixture Models. The Indian Journal of Statistics, Series A, 62(1), 49-66.
Yoğun Bakım Ünitesinde Hasta Kalış Süresinin Karma Dağılım ile Modellenmesi Yıl 2024, Cilt: 39 Sayı: 2, 427 – 436, 11.07.2024
Selin Saraç Güleryüz
https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaumfd.1514433
Öz Yoğun bakım üniteleri sağlık sisteminde merkezi bir rol oynamaktadır. Hastanede kalış süresi, hastane yönetimi kalitesinin önemli bir göstergesidir. Simülasyon, çizelgeleme, planlama gibi alanlarda hasta kalış sürelerinin istatistiksel olarak tanımlanması gerekir. Ancak bu veriler oldukça çarpıktı ve bu nedenle istatistiksel modelleme zorlu bir iş olabilir. Karma dağılım modelleri, bu zorluğun üstesinden gelebilecek kabiliyete sahip modellerdir. Bu çalışmada, iki farklı yoğun bakım ünitesinde (genel cerrahi, koroner) gözlemlenen oldukça çarpık hasta kalış süresi verilerinin modellenmesi için karma dağılım yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Karma dağılım modellerini geliştirmek için dört farklı dağılım (normal, Weibull, gamma, lognormal) kullanılmıştır. Karma dağılımının optimal bileşen sayısı Bayes bilgi kriteri değeri yardımıyla belirlenmiş ve dağılım parametreleri beklenti-maksimizasyon algoritması kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Bileşen ve parametre tahmini yapılan karma dağılımın model geçerliliği, ortalama mutlak yüzde hata ve R2 değeri kullanılarak değerlendirilmiş ve gerçek veri setlerini oldukça yüksek doğrulukla temsil ettiği görülmüştür.
Anahtar Kelimeler Kalış süresi, Performans metrikleri, Karma dağılım, Tahmin, Yoğun bakım ünitesi
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A Hierarchical Poisson Mixture Regression Model to Analyse Maternity Length of Hospital Stay. Statistics in Medicine, 21(23), 3639-3654. 27. Atienza, N., Garcia-Heras, J., Munoz-Pichardo, J., Villa, R., 2008. An Application of Mixture Distributions in Modelization of Length of Hospital Stay. Statistics in Medicine, 27(9), 1403-1420. 28. Garg, L., McClean, S., Meenan, B., El-Darzi, E., Millard, P., 2009. Clustering Patient Length of Stay using Mixtures of Gaussian Models and Phase Type Distributions. 22nd IEEE International Symposium on Computer-Based Medical Systems, 1-7. 29. Singh, C., Ladusingh, L., 2010. Inpatient Length of Stay: A Finite Mixture Modeling Analysis. The European Journal of Health Economics, 11(2), 119-126. 30. Titterington, D., Smith, A., Makov, U., 1985. Statistical Analysis of Finite Mixture Distributions. Wiley, New York, 243. 31. Fraley, C., Raftery, A.E., 1998. How Many Clusters? Which Clustering Method?-Answers via Model-Based Cluster Analysis. The Computer Journal, 41(8), 578-588. 32. Sin, C.Y., White, H., 1996. Information Criteria for Selecting Possibly Misspecified Parametric Models. Journal of Econometrics, 71(1-2), 207-225. 33. Akaike, H., 1974. A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 19(6), 716-723. 34. Schwarz, G., 1978. Estimating the Dimension of a Model. Annals of Statistics, 6(2), 461-464. 35. Dempster, A., Laird, N., Rubin, D., 1977. Maximum Likelihood from Incomplete Data via the EM Algorithm (with Discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Methodological) 39(1), 1-38. 36. McLachlan, G., Peel, D., 2000. Finite Mixture Models. John Wiley & Sons, Inc, New York, 464. 37. Lewis, C.D., 1982. Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods. Butterworths, Londra, 40. 38. Steel, R.G, Torrie, J.H., 1960. Principles and Procedures of Statistics with Special Reference to the Biological Sciences. McGraw Hill, New York, 481. 39. Nas, S., Koyuncu, M., 2019. Emergency Department Capacity Planning: A Recurrent Neural Network and Simulation Approach. Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine. 40. Antmen, F.Z., Oğulata, S.N., 2013. The Capacity Planning of Intensive Care Units via Simulation: A Case Study in University Hospital. International Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 51(21), 214-235. 41. Snedecor, G.W., Cochran, W.G., 1991. Statistical Methods, 8th Edition. Iowa State University Press, Ames, 524. 42. Keribin, C., 2000. Consistent Estimation of the Order of Mixture Models. The Indian Journal of Statistics, Series A, 62(1), 49-66. Toplam 42 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar Birincil Dil Türkçe Konular Endüstri Mühendisliği, Stokastik (Olasılıksal) Süreçler Bölüm Makaleler Yazarlar Selin Saraç Güleryüz TOROS ÜNİVERSİTESİ, MÜHENDİSLİK FAKÜLTESİ, ENDÜSTRİ MÜHENDİSLİĞİ BÖLÜMÜ 0000-0002-4729-0637 Türkiye
Yayımlanma Tarihi 11 Temmuz 2024 Gönderilme Tarihi 18 Mart 2024 Kabul Tarihi 27 Haziran 2024 Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 39 Sayı: 2
Kaynak Göster APA Saraç Güleryüz, S. (2024). Yoğun Bakım Ünitesinde Hasta Kalış Süresinin Karma Dağılım ile Modellenmesi. Çukurova Üniversitesi Mühendislik Fakültesi Dergisi, 39(2), 427-436. https://doi.org/10.21605/cukurovaumfd.1514433
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