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THE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES AND AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS Skip to content Yıl 2024, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 279 – 305, 28.06.2024
Kurtuluş Merdan
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1414289
Öz The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of agricultural subsidies and agricultural employment on economic growth in Türkiye by utilizing annual data for the period 2000-2022. Benefiting from empirical analysis, the variables in the study were primarily tested with the unit root test. The differences of the variables for which unit roots were determined were purified from unit roots as the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test suggests. Appropriate lag test was applied to the series and then the causality relationship between economic growth, agricultural employment rate and agricultural support amount was analyzed according to the results of cointegration, error-corrected VAR estimation, and Granger causality test. Based on the results of the analysis, agricultural subsidies do not have a significant effect on economic growth or economic growth on agricultural subsidies, whereas agricultural employment has a bidirectional and positive effect on economic growth. Causality findings indicate no causality between agricultural subsidies and economic growth. A bidirectional and positive economic growth as a result of agricultural employment was determined, and the existence of a causality relationship between the two variables has been demonstrated. In conclusion, it has been found that agricultural subsidies provided for economic growth in Türkiye have not yielded effective results, whereas agricultural employment provided positive reflections. Therefore, taking measures for a controlled transition from the agricultural sector to non-agricultural sectors over time, thus increasing the quality and adaptability of the workforce in the sector, and recording employment through incentives will make a great contribution to the solution of the problem.
Anahtar Kelimeler economıc Growth, Agricultural supports, agricultural employment
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Retrieved from, https:// insamer.com/tr/turkiyede-tarimpolitikalari-ve-arayislar_2626.html. Accessed 15.04.2023. Granger, C. (1980). Testing for causality: A personal viewpoint. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2(1), 329-352. Guo, X., Lung, P., Sui, J., Zhang, R., & Wang, C. (2021). Agricultural support policies and china’s cyclical evolutionary path of agricultural economic growth. Sustainability, 13(11), 6134. Guth, M., Smedzik-Ambrozy, K., Czyzewski, B., & Stepien, S. (2020). The Economic Sustainability of Farms under Common Agricultural Policy in the European Union Countries. Agriculture 10(34), 1-20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture10020034. Gülçubuk, B. (2005). Rural development. Inside F. Yavuz (Ed.) Agriculture in Turkey (p. 69-94). Ankara: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Publications. Gürbüz, M. (2005). Agriculture for Türkiye. Istanbul: TEMA Foundation Publications. Gürler, A. Z. (2016). Agricultural economics and policy. Ankara: Nobel Academic Publishing. Hatunoğlu, E. E., & Eldeniz, F. (2012). Structural transformation policies in the Turkish agricultural sector after 2000. TCA Journal, (86), 27-56. Kanca, O. C. (2012). An Empirical analysis of the causality between unemployment and economic growth in Türkiye. Çukurova University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 21(2), 1-18. Kaynak, M. (2005). Development Economics. Ankara: Gazi Publishing House. Kılıçkap, E. İnan, A., & Subaşı, H. (2001). The Effects of GAP on the Development Process of the Agricultural Manufacturing Industry in Diyarbakır Province. II. GAP and Industry Congress Proceedings Handbook, Diyarbakır: TMMOB Chamber of Mechanical Engineers. Kopuk, E., & O. Meçik, (2021). The Effect of Manufacturing Industry and Agriculture Sectors on Economic Growth in Türkiye: Analysis of 1998-2020 Period. Socioeconomics, 27(2), 263-274. Köse, Z., & Meral, T. (2021). An investigation on the relationship between agricultural supports, food security and economic growth in Türkiye. Studies on Social Science Insights, 1(2), 51-73. Khan, D., Ahmed, S. S., & Ahmed, E. (2012). Agriculture and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan. 2. International Multidisciplinary Conference towards Better Pakistan, (pp. 1-6). Pakistan. Merdan, K. (2023). Factors Affecting Agricultural Growth in Turkey (A Regression Analysis). KMU Journal of Social and Economic Research, 25(45), 1125-1142. Ok, S. (2008). Reasons for the weakening of the relationship between economic growth and employment and the role of İŞKUR in strengthening this relationship (Specialization Thesis). T.C. Ministry of Labor and Social Security General Directorate of Turkish Employment Agency, Ankara Olhan, E. (2012). Agricultural sector impoverished within the scope of reforms in Türkiye. 10. National Agricultural Economics Congress, 5-7 September 2012, Konya. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD], (2022). OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI), Retrieved from https://www.Oecd.Org/Turkey/. Accessed 05.05.2023. Philips, P. & Vogelsang, T. J. (1993). The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis: Erratum. Econometrica, 61, 248-249. Pierre, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401. Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye (2022). Strategy and Budget Directorate. Retrieved from https:// www.sbb.gov.tr/istihdam/. Accessed 19.05.2023. Presidency Of the Republic of Türkiye Strategy and Budget Directorate [SBB), (2022). Strategy and Budget Department, Retrieved from http://www.sbb.gov.tr/tarim/. Accessed 12.05.2023. Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (2022). Activity report. Retrieved from https:// www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SGB/Belgeler/Bakanl%C4%B1k_Faaliyet_Raporlar%C4%B1/TOB%20 2022%20YILI%20I%CC%87DARE%20FAALI%CC%87YET%20RAPORU.pdf. Accessed 12.05.2023. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock [GTHB], (2022). Ministry of agriculture and forestry 2018-2022 strategic plan. Retrieved from https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SGB/ Belgeler/2013-2017/GTHB%202018-2022%20STRATEJI%CC%87K%20PLAN.PDF. Accessed 21.03.2023 Safdar, İ, Maqsood, S., & Ullah, S. (2012). Impact of Agriculture Volatility on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan. Journel Asian Development Study, 1(2), 24-34. Sağdıç, E. N., & Çakmak, E. (2021) Causal relationship between agricultural support payments and agricultural production level: Türkiye example. Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research, 10 (2), 1858-1880. http://dx.doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.851919. Şaşmaz, M. Ü., & Yayla, Y. E. (2018). Evaluation of determinants of economic development: economic factors. International Journal of Public Finance, 3(2), 249-268. Şaşmaz, M. Ü., & Özel, Ö. (2019). The Effect of Financial Incentives Provided to the Agricultural Sector on the Development of the Agricultural Sector: The Case of Türkiye. Dumlupınar University Journal of Social Sciences, 61: 50-65. Sertkaya D. Ö., & Şahin, G. (2020). Women’s presence in Türkiye’s rural population. Woman, 21(1), 41-66. Spittler, J., Ross, R., & Block, W. (2011). The economic impact of agricultural subsidies in the United States. The Journal of Social, Political, and Economic Studies, 36(3), 301. Tan, S., Hasdemir, M., & Everest, B. (2015). Agricultural support policies in Türkiye. Internatıonal Conference on Eurasıan Economıes, 266-270. Terı̇n, M., Aksoy, A., & Güler, I. O. (2013). A study on determination of economic factors affecting agricultural growth. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology, 3 (3), 41-50. Turhan, Ş., & Erdal, B. (2022). Economic Growth and agricultural employment. Osmaniye Korkut Ata University Institute of Science and Technology Journal, 5 (1), 66-74. http://dx.doi.org/10.47495/ okufbed.972239. Türkiye Statistical Institute [TÜİK] (2022a). Labor Statistics/Key Labor Force Indicators, Newsletter, Number: 45645. Retrieved from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=%C4%B0%C5%9Fg%C3%BCc%C3%BC-%C4%B0statistikleri-2021-45645&dil=1. Accessed 14.03.2023. Türkiye Statistical Institute [TÜİK] (2022b). Labor Statistics/Key Labor Force Indicators, Newsletter, Number: 49390. Retrieved from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-2022-49390. Accessed 23.03.2023. Uslu, H. ve Apaydın, F. (2021). An empirical application on agricultural productivity and area-based supports in Turkey. Hittite Journal of Social Sciences, 14(2), 477-499. doi: 10.17218/hititsbd.1002014. Üçler, Y. T. (2022). Employment growth relationship by sectors in Turkey. Pearson Journal of Social Sciences & Humanıties, 7(21), 148-160. Yavuz, F. (2005). Agriculture in Türkiye. T.R. ministry of agriculture and rural affairs, Date accessed: March, 2023. https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SGB/Belgeler/ya yinlar/turkiyede_tarim.pdf.
TARIMSAL DESTEKLEMELERİN VE TARIMSAL İSTİHDAMIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNE ETKİLERİ: BİR ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ Yıl 2024, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 279 – 305, 28.06.2024
Kurtuluş Merdan
https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1414289
Öz Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de 2000-2022 dönemine ait yıllık verilerle tarımsal desteklemelerin ve tarımsal istihdamın ekonomik büyüme üzerine olan etkilerini incelemektir. Ampirik analizin kullanıldığı bu çalışmada öncelikle değişkenler birim kök testiyle sınanmıştır. Birim kök tespit edilen değişkenlerin farkları Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) testine göre birim kökten arındırılmıştır. Serilere uygun gecikme testi uygulanmış ve ardından ekonomik büyüme, tarımsal istihdam oranı ve tarımsal destek miktarı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi eş bütünleşme, hata düzeltmeli VAR tahmini ve Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen analiz sonuçlarına göre, tarımsal desteklemelerin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde ya da ekonomik büyümenin tarımsal desteklemeler üzerinde anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. Nedensellik bulguları ise tarımsal destekler ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedenselliğin olmadığına işaret etmektedir. Tarımsal istihdamın ise ekonomik büyümeyi çift yönlü ve pozitif bir şekilde etkilediği tespit edilmiş, iki değişken arasında bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı ortaya konulmuştur. Sonuç olarak; Türkiye’de ekonomik büyümeye yönelik verilen tarımsal desteklerin etkili olmadığı buna karşılık tarımsal istihdamın olumlu yansımalarının olduğu bulgusuna ulaşılmıştır. Dolayısıyla tarım sektöründen tarım dışı sektörlere zamana yayılan kontrollü bir geçiş için önlemler alınması ve bu şekilde sektördeki işgücünün niteliği ve uyum yeteneğinin artırılması, teşvikler yoluyla istihdamın kayıt altına alınması gibi tedbirler sorunun çözümünde büyük katkı sunacaktır.
Anahtar Kelimeler tarımsal destekler, tarımsal istihdam, ekonomik büyüme
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Retrieved from, https:// insamer.com/tr/turkiyede-tarimpolitikalari-ve-arayislar_2626.html. Accessed 15.04.2023. Granger, C. (1980). Testing for causality: A personal viewpoint. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2(1), 329-352. Guo, X., Lung, P., Sui, J., Zhang, R., & Wang, C. (2021). Agricultural support policies and china’s cyclical evolutionary path of agricultural economic growth. Sustainability, 13(11), 6134. Guth, M., Smedzik-Ambrozy, K., Czyzewski, B., & Stepien, S. (2020). The Economic Sustainability of Farms under Common Agricultural Policy in the European Union Countries. Agriculture 10(34), 1-20. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture10020034. Gülçubuk, B. (2005). Rural development. Inside F. Yavuz (Ed.) Agriculture in Turkey (p. 69-94). Ankara: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Publications. Gürbüz, M. (2005). Agriculture for Türkiye. Istanbul: TEMA Foundation Publications. Gürler, A. Z. (2016). Agricultural economics and policy. Ankara: Nobel Academic Publishing. Hatunoğlu, E. E., & Eldeniz, F. (2012). Structural transformation policies in the Turkish agricultural sector after 2000. TCA Journal, (86), 27-56. Kanca, O. C. (2012). An Empirical analysis of the causality between unemployment and economic growth in Türkiye. Çukurova University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 21(2), 1-18. Kaynak, M. (2005). Development Economics. Ankara: Gazi Publishing House. Kılıçkap, E. İnan, A., & Subaşı, H. (2001). The Effects of GAP on the Development Process of the Agricultural Manufacturing Industry in Diyarbakır Province. II. GAP and Industry Congress Proceedings Handbook, Diyarbakır: TMMOB Chamber of Mechanical Engineers. Kopuk, E., & O. Meçik, (2021). The Effect of Manufacturing Industry and Agriculture Sectors on Economic Growth in Türkiye: Analysis of 1998-2020 Period. Socioeconomics, 27(2), 263-274. Köse, Z., & Meral, T. (2021). An investigation on the relationship between agricultural supports, food security and economic growth in Türkiye. Studies on Social Science Insights, 1(2), 51-73. Khan, D., Ahmed, S. S., & Ahmed, E. (2012). Agriculture and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan. 2. International Multidisciplinary Conference towards Better Pakistan, (pp. 1-6). Pakistan. Merdan, K. (2023). Factors Affecting Agricultural Growth in Turkey (A Regression Analysis). KMU Journal of Social and Economic Research, 25(45), 1125-1142. Ok, S. (2008). Reasons for the weakening of the relationship between economic growth and employment and the role of İŞKUR in strengthening this relationship (Specialization Thesis). T.C. Ministry of Labor and Social Security General Directorate of Turkish Employment Agency, Ankara Olhan, E. (2012). Agricultural sector impoverished within the scope of reforms in Türkiye. 10. National Agricultural Economics Congress, 5-7 September 2012, Konya. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [OECD], (2022). OECD Services Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI), Retrieved from https://www.Oecd.Org/Turkey/. Accessed 05.05.2023. Philips, P. & Vogelsang, T. J. (1993). The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis: Erratum. Econometrica, 61, 248-249. Pierre, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 1361-1401. Presidency of the Republic of Türkiye (2022). Strategy and Budget Directorate. Retrieved from https:// www.sbb.gov.tr/istihdam/. Accessed 19.05.2023. Presidency Of the Republic of Türkiye Strategy and Budget Directorate [SBB), (2022). Strategy and Budget Department, Retrieved from http://www.sbb.gov.tr/tarim/. Accessed 12.05.2023. Republic of Türkiye Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (2022). Activity report. Retrieved from https:// www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SGB/Belgeler/Bakanl%C4%B1k_Faaliyet_Raporlar%C4%B1/TOB%20 2022%20YILI%20I%CC%87DARE%20FAALI%CC%87YET%20RAPORU.pdf. Accessed 12.05.2023. Republic of Turkey Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock [GTHB], (2022). Ministry of agriculture and forestry 2018-2022 strategic plan. Retrieved from https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SGB/ Belgeler/2013-2017/GTHB%202018-2022%20STRATEJI%CC%87K%20PLAN.PDF. Accessed 21.03.2023 Safdar, İ, Maqsood, S., & Ullah, S. (2012). Impact of Agriculture Volatility on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan. Journel Asian Development Study, 1(2), 24-34. Sağdıç, E. N., & Çakmak, E. (2021) Causal relationship between agricultural support payments and agricultural production level: Türkiye example. Journal of Humanities and Social Sciences Research, 10 (2), 1858-1880. http://dx.doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.851919. Şaşmaz, M. Ü., & Yayla, Y. E. (2018). Evaluation of determinants of economic development: economic factors. International Journal of Public Finance, 3(2), 249-268. Şaşmaz, M. Ü., & Özel, Ö. (2019). The Effect of Financial Incentives Provided to the Agricultural Sector on the Development of the Agricultural Sector: The Case of Türkiye. Dumlupınar University Journal of Social Sciences, 61: 50-65. Sertkaya D. Ö., & Şahin, G. (2020). Women’s presence in Türkiye’s rural population. Woman, 21(1), 41-66. Spittler, J., Ross, R., & Block, W. (2011). The economic impact of agricultural subsidies in the United States. The Journal of Social, Political, and Economic Studies, 36(3), 301. Tan, S., Hasdemir, M., & Everest, B. (2015). Agricultural support policies in Türkiye. Internatıonal Conference on Eurasıan Economıes, 266-270. Terı̇n, M., Aksoy, A., & Güler, I. O. (2013). A study on determination of economic factors affecting agricultural growth. Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology, 3 (3), 41-50. Turhan, Ş., & Erdal, B. (2022). Economic Growth and agricultural employment. Osmaniye Korkut Ata University Institute of Science and Technology Journal, 5 (1), 66-74. http://dx.doi.org/10.47495/ okufbed.972239. Türkiye Statistical Institute [TÜİK] (2022a). Labor Statistics/Key Labor Force Indicators, Newsletter, Number: 45645. Retrieved from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=%C4%B0%C5%9Fg%C3%BCc%C3%BC-%C4%B0statistikleri-2021-45645&dil=1. Accessed 14.03.2023. Türkiye Statistical Institute [TÜİK] (2022b). Labor Statistics/Key Labor Force Indicators, Newsletter, Number: 49390. Retrieved from https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-2022-49390. Accessed 23.03.2023. Uslu, H. ve Apaydın, F. (2021). An empirical application on agricultural productivity and area-based supports in Turkey. Hittite Journal of Social Sciences, 14(2), 477-499. doi: 10.17218/hititsbd.1002014. Üçler, Y. T. (2022). Employment growth relationship by sectors in Turkey. Pearson Journal of Social Sciences & Humanıties, 7(21), 148-160. Yavuz, F. (2005). Agriculture in Türkiye. T.R. ministry of agriculture and rural affairs, Date accessed: March, 2023. https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SGB/Belgeler/ya yinlar/turkiyede_tarim.pdf. Toplam 57 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar Birincil Dil İngilizce Konular Ekonometri Teorisi, Tarım Ekonomisi Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri Yazarlar Kurtuluş Merdan Gümüşhane University 0000-0002-4513-0920 Türkiye
Erken Görünüm Tarihi 26 Haziran 2024 Yayımlanma Tarihi 28 Haziran 2024 Gönderilme Tarihi 3 Ocak 2024 Kabul Tarihi 29 Mayıs 2024 Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2
Kaynak Göster APA Merdan, K. (2024). THE EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL SUBSIDIES AND AGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat Ve İşletme Dergisi, 20(2), 279-305. https://doi.org/10.17130/ijmeb.1414289
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