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Migration, Remittances, and Economic Growth: Evidence From Central Asian Countries Skip to content Yıl 2024, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 3, 238 – 254, 15.07.2024
İbrahim Halil Sugözü , Nuraiym Talantbekova
https://doi.org/10.59445/ijephss.1486682
Öz In this study, the effect of remittances on economic growth is tested by panel data analysis for four Central Asian countries, namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, for the period 2005–2022. One of the most important reasons for the focus of the study on Central Asia is that Central Asia is one of the regions in the world where labor migration is at a very high level in proportion to the population, and as a result, there is a significant number of transfers to the countries of citizenship in proportion to their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, one of the common characteristics of labor migration in the region is that the destination is Russia. Thus, the analysis will lead us to more explanatory and clearer conclusions, and the results of the study will help to determine common policies. As a result of the regression analysis conducted with the Driscoll-Kraay estimator for the analysis, it was found that the increase in remittances positively affects economic growth. On the other hand, it is found that trade openness, which is included in the analysis as the ratio of total foreign trade to national income, has a negative effect on growth. Accordingly, there is evidence that the remittances of workers from abroad make a significant contribution to economic growth in Central Asian countries.
Anahtar Kelimeler Migration, Workers’ Remittances, Economic Growth, Central Asian Countries
Etik Beyan It is declared that scientific and ethical principles have been followed while carrying out and writing this study and that all the sources used have been properly cited.
Destekleyen Kurum This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
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Journal of Econometrics, 120: 263–293. https: //doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(03)00214-8 Chen, H. J. (2005). International migration and economic growth: a source country perspective. Journal of Population Economics, 19(4), 725–748. https: //doi.org/10.1007/s00148-005-0023-1 Dumitrescu, E.I., & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger non-causality in heterogeneous panels, Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.02.014 Emirmahmutoglu, F., & Kose, N. (2011). Testing for Granger causality in heterogeneous mixed panels. Economic Modelling, 28(3), 870-876. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.10.018 Engin, C., & Konuk, T. (2020). The Effect of International Migration on Unemployment and Economic Growth in Turkey: An Econometric Analysis. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 10(1), 103-123. Ergeshbaev, U. (2008). Внешняя трудовая миграция населения стран Центральной Азии [External labor migration of the population of Central Asian countries]. Россия и мусульманский мир, 6, 111-120. Feeny, S., Iamsiraroj, S., & McGillivray, M. (2014). Remittances and Economic Growth: Larger Impacts in Smaller Countries?. The Journal of Development Studies, 50(8), 1055–1066. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2014.895815 Gligoric, M., & Jankovic, I. (2016). The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth and Access to Finance. 13th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development Book of Proceedings. Edt. I. Vrankic, D. Tomic, Barcelona. 81-89. Gündoğmuş, B., & Bayır, M. (2021). The Effect of International Migration on Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis on the European Countries. Manas Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(4), 2204-2217. https: //doi.org/10.33206/mjss.865460 Güreşçi, E. (2010). Türkiye’de Kentten – Köye Göç Olgusu [The Phenomenon of The Urban – Rural Migration in Turkey]. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 11(1), 77-86. IOM (2011). Communicating Effectively about Migration. World Migration Report. International Organization for Migration (IOM): Geneva, Switzerland. ISBN 978-92-9068-619-4 Karadağ, M., Önder, A.Ö., & Karymshakov, K. (2019). Remittances and Economic Growth in Transition Countries. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 9(2), 268–281. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3595938 Konte, M. (2018). Do remittances not promote growth? A finite mixture-of-regressions approach. Empirical Economics, 54, 747–782. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1224-z Korobkov, A.V., & Zaionchkovskaia, Z.A. (2004). The changes in the migration patterns in the post-Soviet states: the first decade. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 37(4), 481–508. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2004.09.004 Kutlu, E. (1992). Uluslararası İşgücü Hareketi Teorisi Çerçevesinde Türkiye’den AT’ye İşgücü Göçünün Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Analizi [Analysis of the Effects of Labor Migration from Turkey to the EC on the Turkish Economy within the Framework of the Theory of International Labor Movement]. Anadolu University Publishing. 656. ISBN: 975-492-347-7 Morley, B. (2006). Causality Between Economic Growth and Immigration: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. Economics Letters, 90(1), 72–76. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.07.008 Mutluer, M. (2003). Uluslararası Göçler ve Türkiye [International Migration and Turkey]. Çantay Bookstore, Istanbul. Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro İktisat Politikalarının Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkisi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma [The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on the Agricultural Sector: A Comparison for Developed and Developing Countries], Unpublished Doctoral Thesis, Erciyes University, Institute of Social Sciences. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105–127. Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, IZA Discussion Paper Series, 1240, 1-39. Pesaran, M.H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrics 74: 967–1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00692 Pesaran, M.H. (2007) A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951 Petrov, V. (2009). Этнические Миграции в Современной России: Детерминанты и Типология [Ethnic Migrations in Modern Russia: Determinants and Typology], http: //srn.su/?p=1541, Date of Access: 16.03.2024 Qutb, R. (2021). Migrants’ remittances and economic growth in Egypt: an empirical analysis from 1980 to 2017. Review of Economics and Political Science, ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print). https: //doi.org/10.1108/reps-10-2018-0011 Ratha, D., Plaza, S., Kim, E.J., Chandra, V., Kurasha, N., & Pradhan, B. (2023). Remittances Remain Resilient but Are Slowing. Migration and Development Brief 38. June. KNOMAD–World Bank, Washington, D.C. Rehman, M.U., Shahzad, S.J.H., Kanwal, M., & Ali, S. (2017). Relationship Between Economic Growth, Financial Development and Worker’s Remittances in South Asia. Revista Evidenciação Contábil &Amp; Finanças, 6(1), 132–144. http://dx.doi.org/10.18405/recfin20180108 Sevinç, H., Bozkurt, E., Künü, S., & Sevinç, D.E. (2016), Economic Growth-Migration Nexus: An Analysis Based on Developing Countries, International Conference on Eurasian Economies, August 29-31, Hungary. Sugözü, İ.H., & Yaşar, S. (2021). Uluslararası Göç ve Ekonomi İlişkisi Bağlamında Türkiye’den Avrupa’ya İşçi Göçü [Labor Migration from Turkey to Europe in the Context of International Migration and Economy]. Turkish Community Identity Cohesion and Participation in Europe in the 60th Anniversary of Immigration, Ed. Bekir Gündoğmuş, Nobel Publishing House, Ankara. 345-371 Tariq, B., Shabbir, M., Ahmed, Z., Tahir, M., Ahmed, B., Saleem, Q., & Ahsan, M. (2018). Impact of International Remittances on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan (1975-2016). Revista Inclusiones, 16–37. Taşçı, F. (2009). Bir Sosyal Politika Sorunu Olarak Göç [Migration as a Social Policy Problem]. Kamu-İş Dergisi 10(4), 177-204. Tazhkuran, N. (2018). Ortasya’da Yaşanan Göçler (1991-2016) [Migrations in Central Asia (1991-2016)]. Istanbul University Institute of Social Sciences, Department of Eurasian Studies, Unpublished Master's Thesis, Istanbul. Türkyılmaz, A., Çay, A., Avşar, Z., Aksoy, M., Pehlivanlı, H., & Kökrek, Z. (1998). Doğu ve Güneydoğu Anadolu’dan Terör Nedeniyle Göç Eden Ailelerin Sorunları [Problems of Families Migrating from Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia due to Terrorism], Ankara: Prime Ministry Family Research Institute, 527. ISBN: 9751921392 Ünsal, A. (2019). Uluslararası Göç Kavramı ve Uluslararası Göçün Ülke Ekonomileri Üzerinde Muhtemel Etkileri [The Concept of International Migration and the Possible Effects of International Migration on Country Economies]. Selcuk University Journal of Social and Technical Research (18), 50-61. Vestnik Evrazii (2008). Sciup.org. https: //sciup.org/14911649, Date of Access: 20.03.2024 Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709-748. World Bank – KNOMAD (2021). World Bank Bilateral Migration Matrix – 2021, https: //www.knomad.org/data/migration/emigration, Date of Access: 15.04.2024 World Bank – KNOMAD (2023). Remittances Remain Resilient but Are Slowing, Migration and Development Brief 38, https://www.knomad.org/publication/migration-and-development-brief-38, Date of Access: 19.05.2024 Yılmaz, A. (2014). International Migration: Its Types, Causes and Effects. Turkish Studies, 9(2), 1685-1704. http://dx.doi.org/10.7827/TurkishStudies.6274
Migration, Remittances, and Economic Growth: Evidence From Central Asian Countries Yıl 2024, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 3, 238 – 254, 15.07.2024
İbrahim Halil Sugözü , Nuraiym Talantbekova
https://doi.org/10.59445/ijephss.1486682
Öz In this study, the effect of remittances on economic growth is tested by panel data analysis for four Central Asian countries, namely Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, for the period 2005–2022. One of the most important reasons for the focus of the study on Central Asia is that Central Asia is one of the regions in the world where labor migration is at a very high level in proportion to the population, and as a result, there is a significant number of transfers to the countries of citizenship in proportion to their Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, one of the common characteristics of labor migration in the region is that the destination is Russia. Thus, the analysis will lead us to more explanatory and clearer conclusions, and the results of the study will help to determine common policies. As a result of the regression analysis conducted with the Driscoll-Kraay estimator for the analysis, it was found that the increase in remittances positively affects economic growth. On the other hand, it is found that trade openness, which is included in the analysis as the ratio of total foreign trade to national income, has a negative effect on growth. Accordingly, there is evidence that the remittances of workers from abroad make a significant contribution to economic growth in Central Asian countries.
Anahtar Kelimeler Migration, Workers’ Remittances, Economic Growth, Central Asian Countries
Etik Beyan It is declared that scientific and ethical principles have been followed while carrying out and writing this study and that all the sources used have been properly cited.
Destekleyen Kurum This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.
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Внешняя трудовая миграция населения стран Центральной Азии [External labor migration of the population of Central Asian countries]. Россия и мусульманский мир, 6, 111-120. Feeny, S., Iamsiraroj, S., & McGillivray, M. (2014). Remittances and Economic Growth: Larger Impacts in Smaller Countries?. The Journal of Development Studies, 50(8), 1055–1066. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2014.895815 Gligoric, M., & Jankovic, I. (2016). The Impact of Remittances on Economic Growth and Access to Finance. 13th International Scientific Conference on Economic and Social Development Book of Proceedings. Edt. I. Vrankic, D. Tomic, Barcelona. 81-89. Gündoğmuş, B., & Bayır, M. (2021). The Effect of International Migration on Unemployment: An Empirical Analysis on the European Countries. Manas Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(4), 2204-2217. https: //doi.org/10.33206/mjss.865460 Güreşçi, E. (2010). Türkiye’de Kentten – Köye Göç Olgusu [The Phenomenon of The Urban – Rural Migration in Turkey]. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 11(1), 77-86. IOM (2011). Communicating Effectively about Migration. World Migration Report. International Organization for Migration (IOM): Geneva, Switzerland. ISBN 978-92-9068-619-4 Karadağ, M., Önder, A.Ö., & Karymshakov, K. (2019). Remittances and Economic Growth in Transition Countries. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 9(2), 268–281. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3595938 Konte, M. (2018). Do remittances not promote growth? A finite mixture-of-regressions approach. Empirical Economics, 54, 747–782. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-016-1224-z Korobkov, A.V., & Zaionchkovskaia, Z.A. (2004). The changes in the migration patterns in the post-Soviet states: the first decade. Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 37(4), 481–508. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.postcomstud.2004.09.004 Kutlu, E. (1992). Uluslararası İşgücü Hareketi Teorisi Çerçevesinde Türkiye’den AT’ye İşgücü Göçünün Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerindeki Etkilerinin Analizi [Analysis of the Effects of Labor Migration from Turkey to the EC on the Turkish Economy within the Framework of the Theory of International Labor Movement]. Anadolu University Publishing. 656. ISBN: 975-492-347-7 Morley, B. (2006). Causality Between Economic Growth and Immigration: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. Economics Letters, 90(1), 72–76. https: //doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2005.07.008 Mutluer, M. (2003). Uluslararası Göçler ve Türkiye [International Migration and Turkey]. Çantay Bookstore, Istanbul. Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro İktisat Politikalarının Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkisi: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma [The Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on the Agricultural Sector: A Comparison for Developed and Developing Countries], Unpublished Doctoral Thesis, Erciyes University, Institute of Social Sciences. Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105–127. Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, IZA Discussion Paper Series, 1240, 1-39. Pesaran, M.H. (2006). Estimation and inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrics 74: 967–1012. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00692 Pesaran, M.H. (2007) A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22, 265-312. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.951 Petrov, V. (2009). Этнические Миграции в Современной России: Детерминанты и Типология [Ethnic Migrations in Modern Russia: Determinants and Typology], http: //srn.su/?p=1541, Date of Access: 16.03.2024 Qutb, R. (2021). Migrants’ remittances and economic growth in Egypt: an empirical analysis from 1980 to 2017. Review of Economics and Political Science, ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print). https: //doi.org/10.1108/reps-10-2018-0011 Ratha, D., Plaza, S., Kim, E.J., Chandra, V., Kurasha, N., & Pradhan, B. (2023). Remittances Remain Resilient but Are Slowing. Migration and Development Brief 38. June. KNOMAD–World Bank, Washington, D.C. Rehman, M.U., Shahzad, S.J.H., Kanwal, M., & Ali, S. (2017). Relationship Between Economic Growth, Financial Development and Worker’s Remittances in South Asia. Revista Evidenciação Contábil &Amp; Finanças, 6(1), 132–144. http://dx.doi.org/10.18405/recfin20180108 Sevinç, H., Bozkurt, E., Künü, S., & Sevinç, D.E. (2016), Economic Growth-Migration Nexus: An Analysis Based on Developing Countries, International Conference on Eurasian Economies, August 29-31, Hungary. Sugözü, İ.H., & Yaşar, S. (2021). Uluslararası Göç ve Ekonomi İlişkisi Bağlamında Türkiye’den Avrupa’ya İşçi Göçü [Labor Migration from Turkey to Europe in the Context of International Migration and Economy]. Turkish Community Identity Cohesion and Participation in Europe in the 60th Anniversary of Immigration, Ed. Bekir Gündoğmuş, Nobel Publishing House, Ankara. 345-371 Tariq, B., Shabbir, M., Ahmed, Z., Tahir, M., Ahmed, B., Saleem, Q., & Ahsan, M. (2018). Impact of International Remittances on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Pakistan (1975-2016). Revista Inclusiones, 16–37. Taşçı, F. (2009). Bir Sosyal Politika Sorunu Olarak Göç [Migration as a Social Policy Problem]. Kamu-İş Dergisi 10(4), 177-204. Tazhkuran, N. (2018). Ortasya’da Yaşanan Göçler (1991-2016) [Migrations in Central Asia (1991-2016)]. Istanbul University Institute of Social Sciences, Department of Eurasian Studies, Unpublished Master's Thesis, Istanbul. Türkyılmaz, A., Çay, A., Avşar, Z., Aksoy, M., Pehlivanlı, H., & Kökrek, Z. (1998). Doğu ve Güneydoğu Anadolu’dan Terör Nedeniyle Göç Eden Ailelerin Sorunları [Problems of Families Migrating from Eastern and Southeastern Anatolia due to Terrorism], Ankara: Prime Ministry Family Research Institute, 527. ISBN: 9751921392 Ünsal, A. (2019). Uluslararası Göç Kavramı ve Uluslararası Göçün Ülke Ekonomileri Üzerinde Muhtemel Etkileri [The Concept of International Migration and the Possible Effects of International Migration on Country Economies]. Selcuk University Journal of Social and Technical Research (18), 50-61. Vestnik Evrazii (2008). Sciup.org. https: //sciup.org/14911649, Date of Access: 20.03.2024 Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709-748. World Bank – KNOMAD (2021). World Bank Bilateral Migration Matrix – 2021, https: //www.knomad.org/data/migration/emigration, Date of Access: 15.04.2024 World Bank – KNOMAD (2023). Remittances Remain Resilient but Are Slowing, Migration and Development Brief 38, https://www.knomad.org/publication/migration-and-development-brief-38, Date of Access: 19.05.2024 Yılmaz, A. (2014). International Migration: Its Types, Causes and Effects. Turkish Studies, 9(2), 1685-1704. http://dx.doi.org/10.7827/TurkishStudies.6274 Toplam 52 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar Birincil Dil İngilizce Konular Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Bölüm Makaleler Yazarlar İbrahim Halil Sugözü KIRGIZİSTAN TÜRKİYE MANAS ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ 0000-0002-1861-3118 Kyrgyzstan
Nuraiym Talantbekova KYRGYZ – TURKISH MANAS UNIVERSITY 0009-0000-4363-3826 Kyrgyzstan
Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Temmuz 2024 Gönderilme Tarihi 19 Mayıs 2024 Kabul Tarihi 13 Temmuz 2024 Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 3
Kaynak Göster APA Sugözü, İ. H., & Talantbekova, N. (2024). Migration, Remittances, and Economic Growth: Evidence From Central Asian Countries. Uluslararası Ekonomi Siyaset İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Dergisi, 7(3), 238-254. https://doi.org/10.59445/ijephss.1486682
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