Forecasting the Role of Renewable Energy on Algeria’s Economic Stability: ARIMAX Model

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 90 – 109, 30.06.2024

Bouazza Elamine Zemrı

https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1474631

Öz

Bu çalışma, yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının entegrasyonunun 2030 yılına kadar Cezayir’in ekonomik istikrarı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Fosil yakıtlara olan yoğun bağımlılığı nedeniyle, Cezayir’in ihracat gelirlerinin %95’ini oluşturmakta ve küresel petrol fiyatlarındaki dalgalanmalara karşı önemli ekonomik kırılganlıklarla karşı karşıya kalmaktadır. Python 3.12.3 kullanarak ARIMAX modelini uygulayan bu araştırma, 1970’ten 2022’ye kadar olan ekonomik verileri analiz ederek enflasyon, ham petrol fiyatları ve toplam birincil enerji arzındaki yenilenebilir enerji payı gibi değişkenleri dikkate alarak GSYİH büyümesini tahmin etmektedir. Bulgular, yenilenebilir enerjinin entegrasyonunun Cezayir’in ekonomik direncini artırabileceğini ve 2030 yılına kadar GSYİH’ye ek olarak %2 katkıda bulunabileceğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışma, yenilenebilir enerjiye yönelik stratejik yatırımların gerekliliğini vurgulayarak, bu geçişin sadece çevresel bir zorunluluk değil, aynı zamanda sürdürülebilir kalkınma ve uzun vadeli ekonomik istikrarın sağlanması için bir temel taşı olduğunu belirtmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Cezayir, ARIMAX Modeli, Ekonomik İstikrar, Yenilenebilir Enerji

Kaynakça

• Afshan, S., Cheong, C. W., & Sharif, A. (2023). Modelling the role of energy price movements toward economic stability in Malaysia: new evidence from wavelet-based analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(38), 88861-88875.
• Aicha, N., Rabiaa, B., & Khaldia, B. (2024). Producing electricity from solar energy in Algeria is a strategic alternative to securing traditional energy supplies. Beam Journal of Economic Studies, 8(1), 200-204.
• Akan, T. (2023). Can renewable energy mitigate the impacts of inflation and policy interest on climate change? Renewable Energy, 214, 255-289.
• Al-Maamary, H. M., Kazem, H. A., & Chaichan, M. T. (2017). The impact of oil price fluctuations on common renewable energies in GCC countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 75, 989-1007. Andrews, B. H., Dean, M. D., Swain, R., & Cole, C. (2013). Building ARIMA and ARIMAX models for predicting long-term disability benefit application rates in the public/private sectors. Society of Actuaries, 1-54.
• Awerbuch, S., & Sauter, R. (2006). Exploiting the oil–GDP effect to support renewables deployment. Energy Policy, 34(17), 2805-2819.
• Backović, N., Jakšić, M., & Ilić, B. (2024). The Impact of energy on climate and economic stability: Forecast for Serbia. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 13(1), 199-222.
• Bouamra, H., Boualleg, N., Abdelmadjid, B. A., & Mohammed, B. (2023). The Asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on ınflation rates in Algeria during the period (1991-2021): An empirical Study using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models. Indian Journal of Economics and Business, 22(2), 25-46.
• Bouchaour, C., & Al-Zeaud, H. A. (2012). Oil price distortion and their impact on Algerian macroeconomic. International Journal of Business and Management, 7(18), 99.
• Camporeale, C., Del Ciello, R., & Jorizzo, M. (2021). Beyond the hydrocarbon economy: The case of Algeria. Sustainable Energy Investment: Technical, Market and Policy Innovations to Address Risk, 165.
• Chen, C., Hu, Y., Karuppiah, M., & Kumar, P. M. (2021). Artificial intelligence on economic evaluation of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 47, 101358.
• Doytch, N., & Narayan, S. (2021). Does transitioning towards renewable energy accelerate economic growth? An analysis of sectoral growth for a dynamic panel of countries. Energy, 235, 121290.
• Edenhofer, O., Hirth, L., Knopf, B., Pahle, M., Schlömer, S., Schmid, E., & Ueckerdt, F. (2013). On the economics of renewable energy sources. Energy Economics, 40, S12-S23.
• Farida, K., Hanene, A., & Bilal, N. (2024). Energy security and diversification of energy resources are imperative for building a new model of development in Algeria. Remittances Review, 9(1), 122-139.
• Gaigalis, V., & Katinas, V. (2020). Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania. Renewable Energy, 151, 1016-1027.
• Hadji, L. (2016). How is 100% Renewable energy possible for Algeria by 2030? California: Global Energy Network Institute (GENI), 19.
• Hasan, S., Hossain, I. U., Hasan, N., Sakib, I. B., Hasan, A., & Amin, T. U. (2024). Forecasting and predictive analysis of source-wise power generation along with economic aspects for developed countries. Energy Conversion and Management: X, 22, 100558.
• Ionescu, R.-V., Zlati, M. L., Antohi, V.-M., Susanu, I. O., & Cristache, N. (2022). A new approach on renewable energy as a support for regional economic development among the European Union. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 184, 121998.
• Kurt, M. Y., & Bayram, M. (2024). The Locomotives of the Algerian hydrocarbon industry: Anti-colonialism, nationalism, and rentierism. In Analyzing Energy Crises and the Impact of Country Policies on the World (pp. 195-212). IGI Global.
• Landefeld, J. S., Seskin, E. P., & Fraumeni, B. M. (2008). Taking the pulse of the economy: Measuring GDP. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(2), 193-216.
• Mohamed-Ariffin, M. S., Daud, M. M., Muhammad, H., Samad, A. R. A., & Hassan, M. (2024). Predicting country-specific financing capacity for renewable energy project. E3S Web of Conferences 516, 01011.
• Obiora, S. C., Bamisile, O., Hu, Y., Ozsahin, D. U., & Adun, H. (2024). Assessing the decarbonization of electricity generation in major emitting countries by 2030 and 2050: Transition to a high share renewable energy mix. Heliyon, 10(8), 2-20.
• Olanipekun, I. O., Ozkan, O., & Olasehinde-Williams, G. (2023). Is renewable energy use lowering resource-related uncertainties? Energy, 271, 126949.
• Özmen, İ., & Balı, S. (2024). Pollution haven hypothesis: Smooth quantile evidence from BRICS. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 6(1), 48-58.
• Palladino, V., Di Somma, M., Cancro, C., Gaggioli, W., De Lucia, M., D’Auria, M., Lanchi, M., Bassetti, F., Bevilacqua, C., & Cardamone, S. (2024). Innovative industrial solutions for improving the technical/economic competitiveness of concentrated solar power. Energies, 17(2), 360.
• Patidar, A. K., Jain, P., Dhasmana, P., & Choudhury, T. (2024). Impact of global events on crude oil economy: a comprehensive review of the geopolitics of energy and economic polarization. GeoJournal, 89(2), 50.
• Peters, R., Berlekamp, J., Kabiri, C., Kaplin, B. A., Tockner, K., & Zarfl, C. (2024). Sustainable pathways towards universal renewable electricity access in Africa. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1-15.
• Poudineh, R., Sen, A., & Fattouh, B. (2018). Advancing renewable energy in resource-rich economies of the MENA. Renewable Energy, 123, 135-149.
• Rey, S., & Hazem, S. (2020). Labor productivity and economic growth in a hydrocarbon-dependent economy: The Algerian case, 1984–2015. The European Journal of Development Research, 32(3), 587-611.
• Shahbaz, M., Raghutla, C., Chittedi, K. R., Jiao, Z., & Vo, X. V. (2020). The effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from the renewable energy country attractive index. Energy, 207, 118162.
• Shilpa, G., & Sheshadri, G. (2019). ARIMAX model for short-term electrical load forecasting. International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering (IJRTE), 8(4), 2786-2790.
• Shumway, R. H., Stoffer, D. S., Shumway, R. H., & Stoffer, D. S. (2017). ARIMA models. Time series analysis and its applications: with R examples, 75-163.
• Stambouli, A. B., Khiat, Z., Flazi, S., & Kitamura, Y. (2012). A review on the renewable energy development in Algeria: Current perspective, energy scenario and sustainability issues. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(7), 4445-4460.
• Stocker, M., Baffes, J., Some, Y. M., Vorisek, D., & Wheeler, C. M. (2018). The 2014-16 oil price collapse in retrospect: sources and implications. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper(8419).
• Sweeney, C., Bessa, R. J., Browell, J., & Pinson, P. (2020). The future of forecasting for renewable energy. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 9(2), e365.
• Umaru, A., & Zubairu, A. A. (2012). Effect of inflation on the growth and development of the Nigerian economy (An empirical analysis). International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(10), 183-191.
• Victor‐Edema, U. A., & Essi, I. D. (2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) model for Nigerian non‐oil export. European Journal of Business and Management, 8(36), 29-34.
• Wang, H., Yao, R., Hou, L., Zhao, J., & Zhao, X. (2021). A methodology for calculating the contribution of exogenous variables to ARIMAX predictions. Canadian Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2-12.
• Yi, S., Abbasi, K. R., Hussain, K., Albaker, A., & Alvarado, R. (2023). Environmental concerns in the United States: Can renewable energy, fossil fuel energy, and natural resources depletion help? Gondwana Research, 117, 41-55.
• Zahraoui, Y., Khan, M. R. B., AlHamrouni, I., Mekhilef, S., & Ahmed, M. (2021). Current status, scenario, and prospective of renewable energy in algeria: a review. Energies, 14(9), 2354.
• Zemri, B. E. (2024). Green Growth in Algeria: Balancing industry and environment for sustainable economic development. Dirassat Journal Economic Issue, 15(1), 119-139.
• Zhao, J., Wang, B., Dong, K., Shahbaz, M., & Ni, G. (2023). How do energy price shocks affect global economic stability? Reflection on geopolitical conflicts. Energy Economics, 126, 107014.

Forecasting the Role of Renewable Energy on Algeria's Economic Stability: ARIMAX Model

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 90 – 109, 30.06.2024

Bouazza Elamine Zemrı

https://doi.org/10.54821/uiecd.1474631

Öz

This study investigates the impact of integrating renewable energy sources on Algeria’s economic stability by 2030. Given Algeria’s heavy reliance on fossil fuels, which constitutes 95% of its export revenues, the nation faces significant economic vulnerabilities due to global oil price fluctuations. Utilizing Python 3.12.3 to implement the ARIMAX model, this research analyzes economic data from 1970 to 2022 to forecast GDP growth, considering variables such as inflation, crude oil prices, and the share of renewable energy in the total primary energy supply. The findings suggest that incorporating renewable energy could enhance Algeria’s economic resilience, potentially contributing an additional 2% to GDP by 2030. This study underscores the critical need for strategic investments in renewable energy, emphasizing that this shift is not just an environmental imperative but a cornerstone for ensuring sustainable development and long-term economic stability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Algeria, ARIMAX Model, Economic Stability, Renewable Energy

Kaynakça

• Afshan, S., Cheong, C. W., & Sharif, A. (2023). Modelling the role of energy price movements toward economic stability in Malaysia: new evidence from wavelet-based analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(38), 88861-88875.
• Aicha, N., Rabiaa, B., & Khaldia, B. (2024). Producing electricity from solar energy in Algeria is a strategic alternative to securing traditional energy supplies. Beam Journal of Economic Studies, 8(1), 200-204.
• Akan, T. (2023). Can renewable energy mitigate the impacts of inflation and policy interest on climate change? Renewable Energy, 214, 255-289.
• Al-Maamary, H. M., Kazem, H. A., & Chaichan, M. T. (2017). The impact of oil price fluctuations on common renewable energies in GCC countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 75, 989-1007. Andrews, B. H., Dean, M. D., Swain, R., & Cole, C. (2013). Building ARIMA and ARIMAX models for predicting long-term disability benefit application rates in the public/private sectors. Society of Actuaries, 1-54.
• Awerbuch, S., & Sauter, R. (2006). Exploiting the oil–GDP effect to support renewables deployment. Energy Policy, 34(17), 2805-2819.
• Backović, N., Jakšić, M., & Ilić, B. (2024). The Impact of energy on climate and economic stability: Forecast for Serbia. Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, 13(1), 199-222.
• Bouamra, H., Boualleg, N., Abdelmadjid, B. A., & Mohammed, B. (2023). The Asymmetric effect of oil price volatility on ınflation rates in Algeria during the period (1991-2021): An empirical Study using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag models. Indian Journal of Economics and Business, 22(2), 25-46.
• Bouchaour, C., & Al-Zeaud, H. A. (2012). Oil price distortion and their impact on Algerian macroeconomic. International Journal of Business and Management, 7(18), 99.
• Camporeale, C., Del Ciello, R., & Jorizzo, M. (2021). Beyond the hydrocarbon economy: The case of Algeria. Sustainable Energy Investment: Technical, Market and Policy Innovations to Address Risk, 165.
• Chen, C., Hu, Y., Karuppiah, M., & Kumar, P. M. (2021). Artificial intelligence on economic evaluation of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies. Sustainable Energy Technologies and Assessments, 47, 101358.
• Doytch, N., & Narayan, S. (2021). Does transitioning towards renewable energy accelerate economic growth? An analysis of sectoral growth for a dynamic panel of countries. Energy, 235, 121290.
• Edenhofer, O., Hirth, L., Knopf, B., Pahle, M., Schlömer, S., Schmid, E., & Ueckerdt, F. (2013). On the economics of renewable energy sources. Energy Economics, 40, S12-S23.
• Farida, K., Hanene, A., & Bilal, N. (2024). Energy security and diversification of energy resources are imperative for building a new model of development in Algeria. Remittances Review, 9(1), 122-139.
• Gaigalis, V., & Katinas, V. (2020). Analysis of the renewable energy implementation and prediction prospects in compliance with the EU policy: A case of Lithuania. Renewable Energy, 151, 1016-1027.
• Hadji, L. (2016). How is 100% Renewable energy possible for Algeria by 2030? California: Global Energy Network Institute (GENI), 19.
• Hasan, S., Hossain, I. U., Hasan, N., Sakib, I. B., Hasan, A., & Amin, T. U. (2024). Forecasting and predictive analysis of source-wise power generation along with economic aspects for developed countries. Energy Conversion and Management: X, 22, 100558.
• Ionescu, R.-V., Zlati, M. L., Antohi, V.-M., Susanu, I. O., & Cristache, N. (2022). A new approach on renewable energy as a support for regional economic development among the European Union. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 184, 121998.
• Kurt, M. Y., & Bayram, M. (2024). The Locomotives of the Algerian hydrocarbon industry: Anti-colonialism, nationalism, and rentierism. In Analyzing Energy Crises and the Impact of Country Policies on the World (pp. 195-212). IGI Global.
• Landefeld, J. S., Seskin, E. P., & Fraumeni, B. M. (2008). Taking the pulse of the economy: Measuring GDP. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(2), 193-216.
• Mohamed-Ariffin, M. S., Daud, M. M., Muhammad, H., Samad, A. R. A., & Hassan, M. (2024). Predicting country-specific financing capacity for renewable energy project. E3S Web of Conferences 516, 01011.
• Obiora, S. C., Bamisile, O., Hu, Y., Ozsahin, D. U., & Adun, H. (2024). Assessing the decarbonization of electricity generation in major emitting countries by 2030 and 2050: Transition to a high share renewable energy mix. Heliyon, 10(8), 2-20.
• Olanipekun, I. O., Ozkan, O., & Olasehinde-Williams, G. (2023). Is renewable energy use lowering resource-related uncertainties? Energy, 271, 126949.
• Özmen, İ., & Balı, S. (2024). Pollution haven hypothesis: Smooth quantile evidence from BRICS. International Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 6(1), 48-58.
• Palladino, V., Di Somma, M., Cancro, C., Gaggioli, W., De Lucia, M., D’Auria, M., Lanchi, M., Bassetti, F., Bevilacqua, C., & Cardamone, S. (2024). Innovative industrial solutions for improving the technical/economic competitiveness of concentrated solar power. Energies, 17(2), 360.
• Patidar, A. K., Jain, P., Dhasmana, P., & Choudhury, T. (2024). Impact of global events on crude oil economy: a comprehensive review of the geopolitics of energy and economic polarization. GeoJournal, 89(2), 50.
• Peters, R., Berlekamp, J., Kabiri, C., Kaplin, B. A., Tockner, K., & Zarfl, C. (2024). Sustainable pathways towards universal renewable electricity access in Africa. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 1-15.
• Poudineh, R., Sen, A., & Fattouh, B. (2018). Advancing renewable energy in resource-rich economies of the MENA. Renewable Energy, 123, 135-149.
• Rey, S., & Hazem, S. (2020). Labor productivity and economic growth in a hydrocarbon-dependent economy: The Algerian case, 1984–2015. The European Journal of Development Research, 32(3), 587-611.
• Shahbaz, M., Raghutla, C., Chittedi, K. R., Jiao, Z., & Vo, X. V. (2020). The effect of renewable energy consumption on economic growth: Evidence from the renewable energy country attractive index. Energy, 207, 118162.
• Shilpa, G., & Sheshadri, G. (2019). ARIMAX model for short-term electrical load forecasting. International Journal of Recent Technology and Engineering (IJRTE), 8(4), 2786-2790.
• Shumway, R. H., Stoffer, D. S., Shumway, R. H., & Stoffer, D. S. (2017). ARIMA models. Time series analysis and its applications: with R examples, 75-163.
• Stambouli, A. B., Khiat, Z., Flazi, S., & Kitamura, Y. (2012). A review on the renewable energy development in Algeria: Current perspective, energy scenario and sustainability issues. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 16(7), 4445-4460.
• Stocker, M., Baffes, J., Some, Y. M., Vorisek, D., & Wheeler, C. M. (2018). The 2014-16 oil price collapse in retrospect: sources and implications. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper(8419).
• Sweeney, C., Bessa, R. J., Browell, J., & Pinson, P. (2020). The future of forecasting for renewable energy. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, 9(2), e365.
• Umaru, A., & Zubairu, A. A. (2012). Effect of inflation on the growth and development of the Nigerian economy (An empirical analysis). International Journal of Business and Social Science, 3(10), 183-191.
• Victor‐Edema, U. A., & Essi, I. D. (2016). Autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variable (ARIMAX) model for Nigerian non‐oil export. European Journal of Business and Management, 8(36), 29-34.
• Wang, H., Yao, R., Hou, L., Zhao, J., & Zhao, X. (2021). A methodology for calculating the contribution of exogenous variables to ARIMAX predictions. Canadian Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2-12.
• Yi, S., Abbasi, K. R., Hussain, K., Albaker, A., & Alvarado, R. (2023). Environmental concerns in the United States: Can renewable energy, fossil fuel energy, and natural resources depletion help? Gondwana Research, 117, 41-55.
• Zahraoui, Y., Khan, M. R. B., AlHamrouni, I., Mekhilef, S., & Ahmed, M. (2021). Current status, scenario, and prospective of renewable energy in algeria: a review. Energies, 14(9), 2354.
• Zemri, B. E. (2024). Green Growth in Algeria: Balancing industry and environment for sustainable economic development. Dirassat Journal Economic Issue, 15(1), 119-139.
• Zhao, J., Wang, B., Dong, K., Shahbaz, M., & Ni, G. (2023). How do energy price shocks affect global economic stability? Reflection on geopolitical conflicts. Energy Economics, 126, 107014.

Toplam 41 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Kaynak Göster

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