Analysis of the Relationship Lag Between Beef Production Amount and Average Meat Price in Turkey Using the Koyck Model

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 342 – 346, 30.04.2024

İsmail Gök , Mustafa Şahin

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1397617

Öz

Bu araştırma, Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) tarafından yayınlamış olan 2001-2018 yılları arasında istatistiksel tablolardan elde edilmiştir. Elde edilen tablolarda kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvanların et üretim miktarı bağımlı değişkeni temsil ederken ortalama etinin fiyatı da bağımsız değişkeni temsil etmektedir. Bağımlı değişken ile bağımsız değişken arasındaki ilişki gecikmesinin belirlenebilmesi için de Koyck modeli yardımıyla analiz yapılmıştır.
Araştırma sonucunda, ortalama etin fiyatı geriye doğru en fazla iki yılda kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvanların et üretim miktarından etkilendiği, kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvanların et üretim miktarında meydana gelen bir değişim et fiyatını önemli bir derecede etkilemesi için 0.007 yıl geçmesi gerektiği bulunmuştur. Ayrıca t yılında kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvanların et üretimindeki 1 tonluk bir artış et fiyatını 0.994390 oranında arttırmakta, t-1 dönemde et üretimindeki 1 tonluk bir artış et fiyatını 0.007731 oranında arttırmakta olduğu yapılan analiz ile belirlenmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kesilmiş büyükbaş hayvan et üretimi, Koyck modeli, ortalama et fiyatları, yıllar

Kaynakça

• Aydın, E., Aral, Y., Can, M.F., Cevger, Y., Sakarya, E., İşbilir, S. 2011. “Changes in Red Meat Prices in Turkey in the Last 25 Years and Analysis of the Effects of Import Decisions”, Journal of the Veterinary Association, 82(1), 3 -13.
• Cetinkaya, Ş. 2012. Econometric Analysis of the Quantity-Price Relationship in Turkey's Wheat Production in the Last Ten Years: Koyck-Almon Technique. Journal of Research in Humanities and Social Sciences, 1(4):52-66.
• Çelik, Ş. 2015. Analysis of Production-Price Relationship in Sheep Milk Production with Koyck and Almon Delay Model: Turkey Example. Academic View Journal, 50():137-149. ISSN:1694-528X
• Demir, N. 2012. Comparison of Latest Developments in Livestock Policies in EU and Turkey in Terms of Harmonization Process. Ataturk University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics, Alinteri Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 23(B):58-63.
• Dikmen, N. 2006. Tobacco Production and Price Relationship with the Koyck-Almon Approach. Çukurova University Social Sciences Institute Journal, 15(2): 153-168.
• Doğan, H.G., Gürler, A.Z., Ayyıldız, B., Şimşek, E. 2014. Analytical Evaluation of Production-Price Relationship in Potato Production with the Koyck Approach (TR 17 Region Example). Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, 2(1): 42-46.
• Erdal, E. 2006. Analysis of Production-Price Relationship in Agricultural Products with Koyck Approach (Tomato Example). Gaziosmanpaşa University Faculty of Agriculture Journal, 23(2):17-24.
• Erdal, G., Erdal, H. 2008. Production-Price Interaction in Dried Onion. Gaziosmanpaşa University Faculty of Agriculture Journal, 25(1): 33-39.
• Güven, O., Ünal, B.E., Dilek, Y. 2017. Kars Cattle Breeding Sector Report and Action Plan, Serhat Development Agency.
• Koyck, L.M. 1954. Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis. North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam. Özçelik, A. and Özer, O.O. 2006. Analysis of Wheat Production and Price Relationship in Turkey with the Koyck Model. Journal of Agricultural Science, 12(4): 333-339.
• Özsayın, D. 2017. Investigation of Production and Price Relationship in Cow Milk Production with Koyck Model Approach. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, 5(6): 681-686.
• Şahin, Y., Para, G., Adkinson, A.Y. 2013. The Effects of Imported Angus Breed Cattle on Turkey's Livestock Breeding and Economy, Atatürk University 9th National Animal Science Student Congress, 23-25 May Erzurum, 331.
• TUIK, 2021. TURKSTAT Data Portal, Access address: http://www.tuik.gov.tr

Analysis of the Relationship Lag Between Beef Production Amount and Average Meat Price in Turkey Using the Koyck Model

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 342 – 346, 30.04.2024

İsmail Gök , Mustafa Şahin

https://doi.org/10.30910/turkjans.1397617

Öz

This research was obtained from statistical tables published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) between 2001 and 2018. In the resulting tables, the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle represents the dependent variable, while the average meat price represents the independent variable. Analysis was carried out with the help of the Koyck model to determine the relationship lag between the dependent variable and the independent variable.
As a result of the research, it was found that the average meat price was affected by the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle in a maximum of two years, and that a change in the meat production amount of slaughtered cattle required 0.007 years to significantly affect the meat price. In addition, it was determined by the analysis that a 1 ton increase in the meat production of slaughtered cattle in year t increases the meat price by 0.994390, and a 1 ton increase in meat production in the t-1 period increases the meat price by 0.007731.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Slaughtered cattle meat production, Koyck model, average meat prices, years.

Kaynakça

• Aydın, E., Aral, Y., Can, M.F., Cevger, Y., Sakarya, E., İşbilir, S. 2011. “Changes in Red Meat Prices in Turkey in the Last 25 Years and Analysis of the Effects of Import Decisions”, Journal of the Veterinary Association, 82(1), 3 -13.
• Cetinkaya, Ş. 2012. Econometric Analysis of the Quantity-Price Relationship in Turkey's Wheat Production in the Last Ten Years: Koyck-Almon Technique. Journal of Research in Humanities and Social Sciences, 1(4):52-66.
• Çelik, Ş. 2015. Analysis of Production-Price Relationship in Sheep Milk Production with Koyck and Almon Delay Model: Turkey Example. Academic View Journal, 50():137-149. ISSN:1694-528X
• Demir, N. 2012. Comparison of Latest Developments in Livestock Policies in EU and Turkey in Terms of Harmonization Process. Ataturk University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics, Alinteri Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 23(B):58-63.
• Dikmen, N. 2006. Tobacco Production and Price Relationship with the Koyck-Almon Approach. Çukurova University Social Sciences Institute Journal, 15(2): 153-168.
• Doğan, H.G., Gürler, A.Z., Ayyıldız, B., Şimşek, E. 2014. Analytical Evaluation of Production-Price Relationship in Potato Production with the Koyck Approach (TR 17 Region Example). Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, 2(1): 42-46.
• Erdal, E. 2006. Analysis of Production-Price Relationship in Agricultural Products with Koyck Approach (Tomato Example). Gaziosmanpaşa University Faculty of Agriculture Journal, 23(2):17-24.
• Erdal, G., Erdal, H. 2008. Production-Price Interaction in Dried Onion. Gaziosmanpaşa University Faculty of Agriculture Journal, 25(1): 33-39.
• Güven, O., Ünal, B.E., Dilek, Y. 2017. Kars Cattle Breeding Sector Report and Action Plan, Serhat Development Agency.
• Koyck, L.M. 1954. Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis. North-Holland Publishing Company, Amsterdam. Özçelik, A. and Özer, O.O. 2006. Analysis of Wheat Production and Price Relationship in Turkey with the Koyck Model. Journal of Agricultural Science, 12(4): 333-339.
• Özsayın, D. 2017. Investigation of Production and Price Relationship in Cow Milk Production with Koyck Model Approach. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, 5(6): 681-686.
• Şahin, Y., Para, G., Adkinson, A.Y. 2013. The Effects of Imported Angus Breed Cattle on Turkey's Livestock Breeding and Economy, Atatürk University 9th National Animal Science Student Congress, 23-25 May Erzurum, 331.
• TUIK, 2021. TURKSTAT Data Portal, Access address: http://www.tuik.gov.tr

Toplam 13 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Kaynak Göster

Download or read online: Click here