Analysis of Behavioral Biases Affecting Investment Decisions of Individual Investors using Analytical Hierarchy Process

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 3, 138 – 146, 15.07.2024

Bekir Elmas , Beyza Demir , Salih Aydın

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1506923

Öz

Individual investors exhibiting irrational behaviors may encounter a difficult situation in financial markets. Investor trends, also known as behavioral trends, have been introduced under different headlines in different studies. Overconfidence, representation, anchoring, regret aversion, and herding were included in the research study. In this study, it was aimed to determine the order of importance of investor biases of individual investors trading in Borsa Istanbul. For this purpose, a survey questionnaire was applied to individual investors trading in BIST. Analytical Hierarchy Process was utilized in testing the research model. A total of 411 participants contributed to the study. As a result of the study, regret aversion bias and overconfidence bias were the leading biases to which individual investors attached importance. However, the criterion (C41) “I feel sorrow for the long-losing stocks I hold.” was found to rank highest among all sub-criteria. This sub-criterion is part of regret aversion bias. Regret aversion bias was also the main criterion ranking highest among all criteria. Upon considering the other sub-criteria of regret aversion bias; C42, C43, and C44 sub-criteria were found to rank second, fourth, and eleventh, respectively. C12 criterion, which ranked third, was seen to belong to overconfidence bias, and this bias ranked second among the main criteria. This research would contribute to a better comprehension of the behavioral biases that affect the decision-making of individual investors trading in BIST. The obtained results of the study are thought to contribute to the behavioral finance literature.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Behavioral Finance, Behavioral Biases, Individual Investor, Analytical Hierarchy Process

Kaynakça

• Abbes, M.B., Boujelbene, Y., and Bouri, A. (2009), Overconfidence bias: explanation of market anomalies French market case. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 4 (7), 12-25.
• Ackert, L., & Deaves, R. (2010). Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets. Cengage Learning: South-Western, USA.
• Ahmad, M., & Shah, S. Z. A. (2020). Overconfidence heuristic-driven bias in investment decision-making and performance: mediating effects of risk perception and moderating effects of financial literacy. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 38 (1), 60-90.
• Antony, A., & Joseph, A. I. (2017). Influence of behavioural factors affecting investment decision—An AHP analysis. Metamorphosis, 16(2), 107-114.
• Armansyah, R. F. (2021). Overconfidence, mental accounting, and loss aversion in investment decision. Journal of Auditing, Finance, and Forensic Accounting, 9(1), 44-53.
• Awais, M. ve Estes, J. (2019). “Antecedents of Regret Aversion Bias of Investors in the Stock Market of Pakistan (PSX) along with the Scale Development on Regret Aversion Bias”. City University Research Journal, 9 (4), 750-763.
• Bouteska, A. ve Regaieg, B. (2020). “Psychology and Behavioral Finance: Anchoring Bias by Financial Analysts on the Tunisian Stock Market”. EuroMed Journal of Business, 15 (1), 39-64.
• Clegg, B. A., McKernan, B., Martey, R. M., Taylor, S. M., Stromer-Galley, J., Kenski, K. ve Strzalkowski, T. (2015). “Effective Mitigation of Anchoring Bias, Projection Bias, and Representativeness Bias from Serious Game-Based Training”. Procedia Manufacturing, 3, 1558-1565.
• Devenow, A., & Welch, I. (1996). Rational herding in financial economics. European economic review, 40(3-5), 603-615.
• Dong, Z., Gu, Q., & Han, X. (2010). Ambiguity aversion and rational herd behaviour. Applied Financial Economics, 20(4), 331-343.
• Epley, N. ve Gilovich, T. (2006). “The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic: Why The Adjustments are Insufficient”. Psychological Science, 17 (4), 311-318.
• Gazel, S. (2015). “The Regret Aversion as an Investor Bias”. International Journal of Business and Management Studies, 4 (2), 419-424.
• Irshad, S., Badshah, W. ve Hakam, U. (2016). “Effect of Representativeness Bias on Investment Decision Making”. Management and Administrative Sciences Review, 5 (1), 26-30.
• Jain, J., Walia, N., & Gupta, S. (2019). Evaluation of behavioral biases affecting investment decision-making of individual equity investors by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Review of Behavioral Finance, 12 (3), 297-314.
• Jain, J., Walia, N., Gupta, S., Aggarwal, K., & Singh, S. (2021). A fuzzy analytical hierarchy process framework for stock selection in the Indian stock market. Journal of Public Affairs, e2710.
• Kataria, C. D., & Choudhary, S. (2015). Herding behavior in financial market: critical literature review. International Research Journal of Commerce Arts and Science, 6(12), 16-26.
• Kufepaksi, M. (2007). The Contribution of Self-Deceptive Behavior on Price Discovery: An Experimental Approach, Proceedings of the 13th Asia Pacific Management Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 56-66.
• Mand, A. A., Janor, H., Rahim, R. A., & Sarmidi, T. (2021). Herding behavior and stock market conditions. PSU Research Review.
• Mokoaleli-Mokoteli Thabang, Taffler Richard J and Agarwal Vineet (2009), Behavioral Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 36, (3-4), 384-418.
• Okan, T., Sarı, S., & Peker, İ. (2016). Girişimcilik Başarı Faktörü Olarak Sosyal Sermaye Kriterlerinin Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHS) İle Ağırlıklandırılması ve Bir Ölçek Önerisi. International Journal of Economic & Social Research, 12(1), 177-194.
• Quddoos, M. U., Rafique, A., Kalim, U., & Sheikh, M. R. (2020). Impact of behavioral biases on investment performance in Pakistan: The moderating role of financial literacy. Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies, 6(4), 1199-1205.
• Park, A., & Sabourian, H. (2011). Herding and contrarian behavior in financial markets. Econometrica, 79(4), 973-1026.
• Ritter, J. R. (2003). Behavioral Finance. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 11(4), 429-437.
• Shefrin, Hersh, (2000). Beyond Greed and Fear: Finance and the Psychology of Investing. Chapters 1-3.
• Subash, R. (2012). Role of behavioral finance in portfolio investment decisions: Evidence from India.
• Yıldırım, B.F. ve Önder, E. (2015). Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemleri (2.Baskı). Bursa: Dora Basın Yayın Dağıtım

Bireysel Yatırımcıların Yatırım Kararlarına Etki Eden Davranışsal Eğilimlerin Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci İle Analizi

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 3, 138 – 146, 15.07.2024

Bekir Elmas , Beyza Demir , Salih Aydın

https://doi.org/10.16951/trendbusecon.1506923

Öz

İrrasyonel davranışlar sergileyen bireysel yatırımcılar finansal piyasalarda zor durumlarla karşılaşabilmektedir. Davranışsal eğilimler olarak da bilinen yatırımcı eğilimleri, farklı çalışmalarda farklı başlıklar altında tanıtılmıştır. Aşırı güven, temsiliyet, çıpalama, pişmanlıktan kaçınma ve sürü eğilimi araştırma çalışmasına dâhil edilmiştir. Bu çalışmada Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören bireysel yatırımcıların yatırımcı önyargılarının önem sırasının belirlenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaçla BIST’te işlem yapan bireysel yatırımcılara anket uygulanmıştır. Araştırma modelinin test edilmesinde Analitik Hiyerarşi Sürecinden yararlanılmıştır. Araştırmaya toplam 411 katılımcı katkı sağlamıştır. Araştırma sonucunda bireysel yatırımcıların önem verdiği önyargıların başında pişmanlıktan kaçınma eğilimi ve aşırı güven eğilimi gelmektedir. Ancak (C41) kriteri “Uzun süredir kayıpta olan hisse senetlerim için üzüntü duyuyorum.” tüm alt kriterler arasında en üst sırada yer aldığı görülmüştür. Bu alt kriter pişmanlıktan kaçınma yanlılığının bir parçasıdır. Pişmanlıktan kaçınma yanlılığı da tüm kriterler arasında en yüksek sırayı alan ana kriter olmuştur. Pişmanlıktan kaçınma yanlılığının diğer alt kriterleri de dikkate alındığında; C42, C43 ve C44 alt kriterlerinin sırasıyla ikinci, dördüncü ve onbirinci sırada yer aldığı görüldü. Üçüncü sırada yer alan C12 kriterinin aşırı güven yanlılığına ait olduğu görüldü ve bu yanlılık ana kriterler arasında ikinci sırada yer aldı. Bu araştırma, BIST’te işlem yapan bireysel yatırımcıların karar vermelerini etkileyen davranışsal önyargıların daha iyi anlaşılmasına katkıda bulunacaktır. Araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçların davranışsal finans literatürüne katkı sağlayacağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Davranışsal Finans, Yatırımcı Eğilimleri, Bireysel Yatırımcı, Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci

Kaynakça

• Abbes, M.B., Boujelbene, Y., and Bouri, A. (2009), Overconfidence bias: explanation of market anomalies French market case. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 4 (7), 12-25.
• Ackert, L., & Deaves, R. (2010). Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets. Cengage Learning: South-Western, USA.
• Ahmad, M., & Shah, S. Z. A. (2020). Overconfidence heuristic-driven bias in investment decision-making and performance: mediating effects of risk perception and moderating effects of financial literacy. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 38 (1), 60-90.
• Antony, A., & Joseph, A. I. (2017). Influence of behavioural factors affecting investment decision—An AHP analysis. Metamorphosis, 16(2), 107-114.
• Armansyah, R. F. (2021). Overconfidence, mental accounting, and loss aversion in investment decision. Journal of Auditing, Finance, and Forensic Accounting, 9(1), 44-53.
• Awais, M. ve Estes, J. (2019). “Antecedents of Regret Aversion Bias of Investors in the Stock Market of Pakistan (PSX) along with the Scale Development on Regret Aversion Bias”. City University Research Journal, 9 (4), 750-763.
• Bouteska, A. ve Regaieg, B. (2020). “Psychology and Behavioral Finance: Anchoring Bias by Financial Analysts on the Tunisian Stock Market”. EuroMed Journal of Business, 15 (1), 39-64.
• Clegg, B. A., McKernan, B., Martey, R. M., Taylor, S. M., Stromer-Galley, J., Kenski, K. ve Strzalkowski, T. (2015). “Effective Mitigation of Anchoring Bias, Projection Bias, and Representativeness Bias from Serious Game-Based Training”. Procedia Manufacturing, 3, 1558-1565.
• Devenow, A., & Welch, I. (1996). Rational herding in financial economics. European economic review, 40(3-5), 603-615.
• Dong, Z., Gu, Q., & Han, X. (2010). Ambiguity aversion and rational herd behaviour. Applied Financial Economics, 20(4), 331-343.
• Epley, N. ve Gilovich, T. (2006). “The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic: Why The Adjustments are Insufficient”. Psychological Science, 17 (4), 311-318.
• Gazel, S. (2015). “The Regret Aversion as an Investor Bias”. International Journal of Business and Management Studies, 4 (2), 419-424.
• Irshad, S., Badshah, W. ve Hakam, U. (2016). “Effect of Representativeness Bias on Investment Decision Making”. Management and Administrative Sciences Review, 5 (1), 26-30.
• Jain, J., Walia, N., & Gupta, S. (2019). Evaluation of behavioral biases affecting investment decision-making of individual equity investors by fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Review of Behavioral Finance, 12 (3), 297-314.
• Jain, J., Walia, N., Gupta, S., Aggarwal, K., & Singh, S. (2021). A fuzzy analytical hierarchy process framework for stock selection in the Indian stock market. Journal of Public Affairs, e2710.
• Kataria, C. D., & Choudhary, S. (2015). Herding behavior in financial market: critical literature review. International Research Journal of Commerce Arts and Science, 6(12), 16-26.
• Kufepaksi, M. (2007). The Contribution of Self-Deceptive Behavior on Price Discovery: An Experimental Approach, Proceedings of the 13th Asia Pacific Management Conference, Melbourne, Australia, 56-66.
• Mand, A. A., Janor, H., Rahim, R. A., & Sarmidi, T. (2021). Herding behavior and stock market conditions. PSU Research Review.
• Mokoaleli-Mokoteli Thabang, Taffler Richard J and Agarwal Vineet (2009), Behavioral Bias and Conflicts of Interest in Analyst Stock Recommendations. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 36, (3-4), 384-418.
• Okan, T., Sarı, S., & Peker, İ. (2016). Girişimcilik Başarı Faktörü Olarak Sosyal Sermaye Kriterlerinin Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHS) İle Ağırlıklandırılması ve Bir Ölçek Önerisi. International Journal of Economic & Social Research, 12(1), 177-194.
• Quddoos, M. U., Rafique, A., Kalim, U., & Sheikh, M. R. (2020). Impact of behavioral biases on investment performance in Pakistan: The moderating role of financial literacy. Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies, 6(4), 1199-1205.
• Park, A., & Sabourian, H. (2011). Herding and contrarian behavior in financial markets. Econometrica, 79(4), 973-1026.
• Ritter, J. R. (2003). Behavioral Finance. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 11(4), 429-437.
• Shefrin, Hersh, (2000). Beyond Greed and Fear: Finance and the Psychology of Investing. Chapters 1-3.
• Subash, R. (2012). Role of behavioral finance in portfolio investment decisions: Evidence from India.
• Yıldırım, B.F. ve Önder, E. (2015). Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemleri (2.Baskı). Bursa: Dora Basın Yayın Dağıtım

Toplam 26 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Kaynak Göster

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