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An Analysis on Determinants of Cash and L/C Export: Findings from Türkiye’s Export Skip to content Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2, 297 – 308, 30.04.2024
Ahmed Yusuf Sarıhan
https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1428225
Öz Uluslararası ticarette kullanılan ödeme yöntemleri tarafların finansal akışı için son derece büyük önem taşımaktadır. Söz konusu, malların ve paranın sınırları aşıp yeni sahibine ulaşması olduğunda tarafları bekleyen riskler daha korkutucu gibi görünebilmektedir. Akreditifli ödeme yöntemi ile bankaların üstlendiği koruyucu rol tarafların daha güvenli bir şekilde ticaret yapmasına olanak sağlamaktadır. Bu yöntemin oluşturduğu maliyetler taraflar için zaman zaman problem haline getirilse de özellikle yeni ticaret ortaklıklarında büyük bir kolaylık olarak görülmektedir. Nitekim ihracatçıların yaptıkları seçimler ülkelerin ticaret istatistiklerinde ödeme yöntemlerine göre de sınıflandırılmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’den Ocak 2013 ile Eylül 2023 arasında peşin ve akreditifli ödeme yöntemleriyle gerçekleşen ihracatın belirleyicilerini ortaya çıkartmak amaçlanmıştır. Bu amaca istinaden döviz kuru ile bazı enflasyon göstergeleri ele alınarak bu makro ekonomik değişkenlerin ödeme türlerine göre gerçekleşen ihracatların nedeni olup olmadığı Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Araştırma bulguları özellikle döviz kuru, enflasyon ve peşin ödemeli ihracat değişkenlerinin akreditifli ödemenin nedeni olduğunu göstermektedir. Öte yandan peşin ödemeli ihracatın nedeni olarak ise sadece yurtdışı üretici fiyat endeksi bulunmuştur. Araştırma bulguları göstermektedir ki Türk ihracatçıları için risk olabilecek ekonomik göstergeler önemli kararların nedenidir. Söz konusu bulgulara dayanarak ihracatçılar ve politika yapıcılar için farklı ekonomik durumlar için dikkatli olunması gereken hususlar hakkında öneriler sunulmuştur.
Anahtar Kelimeler Uluslararası ticaret, İthalat-ihracat analizleri, Ödeme Şekilleri
Etik Beyan Bu çalışma etik kurul izni gerektirmemektedir.
Destekleyen Kurum Bu çalışma herhangi bir kurum tarafından desteklenmemiştir.
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(2021). Uluslararasi Tecrübe Ve Faaliyet Sektörü Çerçevesinde Uluslararasi Ticarette Ödeme Şekilleri: İstanbul İli Üzerine Bir Pilot Araştirma. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(2), 129-152. Auboin, M., & Ruta, M. (2011). The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a review of economic literature. Available at SSRN 1955847. Aygül, M., & Çelenk, B. V. (2018). Ekonomik yaptırımlar ve akreditif. Ticaret ve Fikri Mülkiyet Hukuku Dergisi, 4(1), 1-18. Bayram, O. (2019). Uluslararasi ticarette tahsil esasina dayali ödeme şekilleri (collection basis) ve uygulama adimlari. İzmir Kâtip Çelebi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 209-216. Belderbos, R., & Zou, J. 2009. Real options and foreign affiliate divestments: A portfolio perspective. Journal of International Business Studies, 40(4): 600–620. Butakova, N. (2020), Letter of credit as a payment instrument of the export-import deal Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3598871 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3598871 Candemir, A., Zalluhoğlu, A. E., & Demiralay, E. (2011). Perception of financial and payment terms risks: the analysis of Aegean exporters. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 1(3), 188-207. Carrasco, C. A., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2021). Trade and growth in developing countries: the role of export composition, import composition and export diversification. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54, 919-941. Ceruz, O. (2019). İslam ekonomisinde uluslararası ticaretin yeri ve katılım bankalarında uluslararası ticaretin finansmanı. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(3), 39-58. Çetin, M., & Şeker, F. (2013). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ihracat ilişkisi: gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine bir nedensellik analizi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), 121-142. Chaudhuri, A., & Holbrook, M. B. (2001). The chain of effects from brand trust and brand affect to brand performance: The role of brand loyalty. Journal of Marketing, 65(2), 81–93 Crozet, M., Demir, B., & Javorcik, B. (2022). International trade and letters of credit: A double-edged sword in times of crises. IMF Economic Review, 70(2), 185-211. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072. Ermakov, V. A., Burmistrova, E. M., Bodin, N. B., Chursin, A. A., & Shevereva, E. A. (2018). A letter of credit as an instrument to mitigate risks and improve the efficiency of foreign trade transaction. Revista Espacios, 39(06). Gashi, P., Hashi, I., & Pugh, G. (2014). Export behaviour of SMEs in transition countries. Small Business Economics, 42, 407-435. Gökgöz, A. (2015). Dis ticarette teslim ve ödeme sekillerinin TMS 18 hasilat standardi çerçevesinde incelenmesi. Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 1(3), 105-122. Ilmas, N., Amelia, M., & Risandi, R. (2022). Analysis of the effect of inflation and exchange rate on exports in 5-year ASEAN countries (Years 2010–2020). Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 2(1), 121-132. Irmak, E. (2023). Uluslararası ticarette kullanılan akreditif ödeme yönteminde blokzincir teknolojisi ve akıllı sözleşmeler. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 11(2), 87-102. Jervis R. The implications of prospect theory for human nature and values. Polit Psychol 2004;25(2):163–76. Kazanci, F. (2023). Akreditiflerde katılım bankacılığına özgü sorunlar: UCP 600 kurallarının katılım bankacılığına uyumu. Kocatepe İslami İlimler Dergisi, 6(Özel Sayı), 1-17. Kodalak, O., Topal B. ve Dizkırıcı A. S. (2015). Dis ticarette akreditifli ödemeler: ucp 600'e göre bankalarda güncel örnek uygulamalar. Journal Of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 1(3), 68-90. Kogut, B., & Kulatilaka, N. (1994). Operating flexibility, global manufacturing, and the option value of a multinational network. Management Science, 40(1): 123–139 Kohli, A. K., & Jaworski, B. J. (1990). Market orientation: The construct, research propositions and managerial implications. Journal of Marketing, 54(2), 1–18. Kyvik, O., Saris, W., Bonet, E., & Felício, J. A. (2013). The internationalization of small firms: The relationship between the global mindset and firms’ internationalization behavior. Journal of International Entrepreneurship, 11, 172-195. Lee, J. S. (2021). A study on documentary letter of credit transaction based on import & export procedure. East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE), 9(3), 15-28. Mahata, G. C. (2015). Partial trade credit policy of retailer in economic order quantity models for deteriorating items with expiration dates and price sensitive demand. Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Algorithms in Operations Research, 14(4), 363-392. Marshall, R., Huan, T. C. T., Xu, Y., & Nam, I. (2011). Extending prospect theory cross-culturally by examining switching behavior in consumer and business-to-business contexts. Journal of Business Research, 64(8), 871-878. Meral, Y. (2019). Uluslararası ticaret, ülke riski ve finansman metodu olarak teyitli akreditifler: uygulamada dikkat edilmesi gereken hususlar. InTraders International Trade Academic Journal, 2(1), 1-31. Milanzi, M. A. (2012). The impact of barriers on export behavior of a developing country firms: Evidence from Tanzania. International Journal of Business and Management, 7(3). Oğuz, F. (2015). Örgüt iktisadı: Ekonomi, örgüt ve hukuk ilişkileri. İçinde A. S. Sargut & Ş. Özen (Ed.), Örgüt Kuramları (ss. 193-235). İmge Kitabevi Yayınları. Öztürk, A., & Sandalcilar, A. R. (2018). Diş ticaret işlemlerinde tercih edilen ödeme yöntemleri: Doğu Karadeniz bölgesi üzerine bir uygulama. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(4), 201-218. Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. Rindfleisch, A. (2020). Transaction cost theory: past, present and future. AMS Review, 10(1-2), 85-97. Siami-Namini, S. (2017). Granger causality between exchange rate and stock price: A Toda Yamamoto approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(4), 603-607. Syed Alwi, S. F., Osman, I., Badri, M. B., Muhamat, A. A., Muda, R., & Ibrahim, U. (2022). Issues of letter of credit in malaysian islamic banks. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(9), 373. TIM, 2023. Türkiye’nin Ilk 1000 Ihracatçısı Araştırması, (Erişim Linki: https://tim.org.tr/tr/turkiyenin-ilk-1000-ihracatci-arastirmasi, Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2024). TMT, 2023. İhracat Destekleri, (Erişim Linki: https://ticaret.gov.tr/destekler/ihracat-destekleri, Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2024). Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. Toklu, İ. T. (2018). İhracatta akreditifli ödeme: Bal sektörü üzerine bir vaka analizi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(ICEESS’18), 53-60. Trigeorgis, L. 1996. Real Options: Managerial Flexibility And Strategy In Resource Allocation. Cambridge: MIT Press Triyawan, A., & Novitasari, A. S. (2020). The influence of islamic commercial bank’s letter of credit financing and exchange rate towards indonesia's exports from 2014 to 2018. Ad-Deenar: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, 4(02), 263-275. TUIK, 2023. Girişim Özelliklerine Göre Dış Ticaret. (Erişim Link: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Girisim-Ozelliklerine-Gore-Dis-Ticaret-Istatistikleri-2022-49601, Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2024). Ülkü, H. A. (2021). Akreditif hukukunda temel ilişkiye esas geçersizlik ve akde aykırılık durumlarının türk borçlar kanunu çerçevesinde irdelenmesi. Maltepe Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, (2), 297-308. Varlik, U., & Uçar, M. (2017). Diş ticarette ödeme şekilleri ve vesiak mukabili işlemlerde operasyonel riskler. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 1-16. Williamson, O. E. (1985). The Economic Institutions Of Capitalism. New York: Free Press Yingi, E. (2022). Beyond the pandemic: Implications of COVID-19 on regional economic integration in Southern Africa. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), 11(2), 270-279.
An Analysis on Determinants of Cash and L/C Export: Findings from Türkiye’s Export Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2, 297 – 308, 30.04.2024
Ahmed Yusuf Sarıhan
https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1428225
Öz The payment methods used in international trade are of significant importance for the financial flow of the involved parties. When it comes to transferring goods and funds across borders to their new owners, the risks faced by the parties may seem daunting. The use of a letter of credit payment method by banks serves a protective role, enabling the parties to engage in trade more securely. While the expenses linked to this approach are sometimes viewed as challenging for the involved parties, it is considered a significant enabler, particularly in new trade alliances. In fact, exporters’ choices are classified in countries’ trade statistics based on payment methods. This study aims to uncover the determinants of exports from Türkiye between January 2013 and September 2023, utilizing both cash in advance and letter of credit payment methods. To accomplish this objective, exchange rates and specific inflation indicators, and their causal relationship with export transactions based on payment types was examined using the Toda-Yamamoto causality test. The research findings indicate that exchange rates, inflation, and cash payment variables cause letter of credit payments. Conversely, only the foreign producer price index was identified as a cause for cash-based exports. These findings illustrate that economic indicators, which may pose risks for Turkish exporters, are reasons for important decisions. In light of these findings, recommendations have been made for exporters and policymakers to proceed cautiously in the face of different economic scenarios.
Anahtar Kelimeler International trade, Import-export analyzes, Payment methods
Etik Beyan Ethics comitee approval is not needed for this study.
Destekleyen Kurum This study is not supported by any institution.
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(2021). Uluslararasi Tecrübe Ve Faaliyet Sektörü Çerçevesinde Uluslararasi Ticarette Ödeme Şekilleri: İstanbul İli Üzerine Bir Pilot Araştirma. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 26(2), 129-152. Auboin, M., & Ruta, M. (2011). The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a review of economic literature. Available at SSRN 1955847. Aygül, M., & Çelenk, B. V. (2018). Ekonomik yaptırımlar ve akreditif. Ticaret ve Fikri Mülkiyet Hukuku Dergisi, 4(1), 1-18. Bayram, O. (2019). Uluslararasi ticarette tahsil esasina dayali ödeme şekilleri (collection basis) ve uygulama adimlari. İzmir Kâtip Çelebi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 2(2), 209-216. Belderbos, R., & Zou, J. 2009. Real options and foreign affiliate divestments: A portfolio perspective. Journal of International Business Studies, 40(4): 600–620. Butakova, N. (2020), Letter of credit as a payment instrument of the export-import deal Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3598871 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3598871 Candemir, A., Zalluhoğlu, A. E., & Demiralay, E. (2011). Perception of financial and payment terms risks: the analysis of Aegean exporters. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 1(3), 188-207. Carrasco, C. A., & Tovar-García, E. D. (2021). Trade and growth in developing countries: the role of export composition, import composition and export diversification. Economic Change and Restructuring, 54, 919-941. Ceruz, O. (2019). İslam ekonomisinde uluslararası ticaretin yeri ve katılım bankalarında uluslararası ticaretin finansmanı. Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(3), 39-58. Çetin, M., & Şeker, F. (2013). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve ihracat ilişkisi: gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine bir nedensellik analizi. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 8(1), 121-142. Chaudhuri, A., & Holbrook, M. B. (2001). The chain of effects from brand trust and brand affect to brand performance: The role of brand loyalty. Journal of Marketing, 65(2), 81–93 Crozet, M., Demir, B., & Javorcik, B. (2022). International trade and letters of credit: A double-edged sword in times of crises. IMF Economic Review, 70(2), 185-211. Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072. Ermakov, V. A., Burmistrova, E. M., Bodin, N. B., Chursin, A. A., & Shevereva, E. A. (2018). A letter of credit as an instrument to mitigate risks and improve the efficiency of foreign trade transaction. Revista Espacios, 39(06). Gashi, P., Hashi, I., & Pugh, G. (2014). Export behaviour of SMEs in transition countries. Small Business Economics, 42, 407-435. Gökgöz, A. (2015). Dis ticarette teslim ve ödeme sekillerinin TMS 18 hasilat standardi çerçevesinde incelenmesi. Journal of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 1(3), 105-122. Ilmas, N., Amelia, M., & Risandi, R. (2022). Analysis of the effect of inflation and exchange rate on exports in 5-year ASEAN countries (Years 2010–2020). Jurnal Ekonomi Trisakti, 2(1), 121-132. Irmak, E. (2023). Uluslararası ticarette kullanılan akreditif ödeme yönteminde blokzincir teknolojisi ve akıllı sözleşmeler. İşletme ve İktisat Çalışmaları Dergisi, 11(2), 87-102. Jervis R. The implications of prospect theory for human nature and values. Polit Psychol 2004;25(2):163–76. Kazanci, F. (2023). Akreditiflerde katılım bankacılığına özgü sorunlar: UCP 600 kurallarının katılım bankacılığına uyumu. Kocatepe İslami İlimler Dergisi, 6(Özel Sayı), 1-17. Kodalak, O., Topal B. ve Dizkırıcı A. S. (2015). Dis ticarette akreditifli ödemeler: ucp 600'e göre bankalarda güncel örnek uygulamalar. Journal Of Accounting, Finance and Auditing Studies, 1(3), 68-90. Kogut, B., & Kulatilaka, N. (1994). Operating flexibility, global manufacturing, and the option value of a multinational network. Management Science, 40(1): 123–139 Kohli, A. K., & Jaworski, B. J. (1990). Market orientation: The construct, research propositions and managerial implications. Journal of Marketing, 54(2), 1–18. Kyvik, O., Saris, W., Bonet, E., & Felício, J. A. (2013). The internationalization of small firms: The relationship between the global mindset and firms’ internationalization behavior. Journal of International Entrepreneurship, 11, 172-195. Lee, J. S. (2021). A study on documentary letter of credit transaction based on import & export procedure. East Asian Journal of Business Economics (EAJBE), 9(3), 15-28. Mahata, G. C. (2015). Partial trade credit policy of retailer in economic order quantity models for deteriorating items with expiration dates and price sensitive demand. Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Algorithms in Operations Research, 14(4), 363-392. Marshall, R., Huan, T. C. T., Xu, Y., & Nam, I. (2011). Extending prospect theory cross-culturally by examining switching behavior in consumer and business-to-business contexts. Journal of Business Research, 64(8), 871-878. Meral, Y. (2019). Uluslararası ticaret, ülke riski ve finansman metodu olarak teyitli akreditifler: uygulamada dikkat edilmesi gereken hususlar. InTraders International Trade Academic Journal, 2(1), 1-31. Milanzi, M. A. (2012). The impact of barriers on export behavior of a developing country firms: Evidence from Tanzania. International Journal of Business and Management, 7(3). Oğuz, F. (2015). Örgüt iktisadı: Ekonomi, örgüt ve hukuk ilişkileri. İçinde A. S. Sargut & Ş. Özen (Ed.), Örgüt Kuramları (ss. 193-235). İmge Kitabevi Yayınları. Öztürk, A., & Sandalcilar, A. R. (2018). Diş ticaret işlemlerinde tercih edilen ödeme yöntemleri: Doğu Karadeniz bölgesi üzerine bir uygulama. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 20(4), 201-218. Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. Rindfleisch, A. (2020). Transaction cost theory: past, present and future. AMS Review, 10(1-2), 85-97. Siami-Namini, S. (2017). Granger causality between exchange rate and stock price: A Toda Yamamoto approach. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(4), 603-607. Syed Alwi, S. F., Osman, I., Badri, M. B., Muhamat, A. A., Muda, R., & Ibrahim, U. (2022). Issues of letter of credit in malaysian islamic banks. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 15(9), 373. TIM, 2023. Türkiye’nin Ilk 1000 Ihracatçısı Araştırması, (Erişim Linki: https://tim.org.tr/tr/turkiyenin-ilk-1000-ihracatci-arastirmasi, Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2024). TMT, 2023. İhracat Destekleri, (Erişim Linki: https://ticaret.gov.tr/destekler/ihracat-destekleri, Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2024). Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1-2), 225-250. Toklu, İ. T. (2018). İhracatta akreditifli ödeme: Bal sektörü üzerine bir vaka analizi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(ICEESS’18), 53-60. Trigeorgis, L. 1996. Real Options: Managerial Flexibility And Strategy In Resource Allocation. Cambridge: MIT Press Triyawan, A., & Novitasari, A. S. (2020). The influence of islamic commercial bank’s letter of credit financing and exchange rate towards indonesia's exports from 2014 to 2018. Ad-Deenar: Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Islam, 4(02), 263-275. TUIK, 2023. Girişim Özelliklerine Göre Dış Ticaret. (Erişim Link: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Girisim-Ozelliklerine-Gore-Dis-Ticaret-Istatistikleri-2022-49601, Erişim Tarihi: 01.01.2024). Ülkü, H. A. (2021). Akreditif hukukunda temel ilişkiye esas geçersizlik ve akde aykırılık durumlarının türk borçlar kanunu çerçevesinde irdelenmesi. Maltepe Üniversitesi Hukuk Fakültesi Dergisi, (2), 297-308. Varlik, U., & Uçar, M. (2017). Diş ticarette ödeme şekilleri ve vesiak mukabili işlemlerde operasyonel riskler. Uluslararası Ticaret ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 1(1), 1-16. Williamson, O. E. (1985). The Economic Institutions Of Capitalism. New York: Free Press Yingi, E. (2022). Beyond the pandemic: Implications of COVID-19 on regional economic integration in Southern Africa. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), 11(2), 270-279. Toplam 51 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar Birincil Dil İngilizce Konular Ekonomi Teorisi (Diğer), Finans ve Yatırım (Diğer) Bölüm Makaleler Yazarlar Ahmed Yusuf Sarıhan BANDIRMA ONYEDİ EYLÜL ÜNİVERSİTESİ, ÖMER SEYFETTİN UYGULAMALI BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ 0000-0001-7119-9852 Türkiye
Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Nisan 2024 Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Nisan 2024 Gönderilme Tarihi 30 Ocak 2024 Kabul Tarihi 7 Mart 2024 Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2
Kaynak Göster APA Sarıhan, A. Y. (2024). An Analysis on Determinants of Cash and L/C Export: Findings from Türkiye’s Export. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 25(2), 297-308. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1428225
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