Deterrence in Inter-State Communication: International Signaling Strategies

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 441 – 459, 30.07.2024

Hayati Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.17680/erciyesiletisim.1444923

Öz

Büyük Güçler çağında aktörler için bazen çatışmaya bazen de işbirliğine gitmek daha maliyetli olabilir. Ancak aktörler savaştan kaçınmak istiyorsa ve buna rağmen yine de rakiplerinin kararlarını etkileyip davranışlarını şekillendirmek istiyorsa caydırıcılık önemli bir referans merkezidir. Karşı tarafın savaşma isteğini caydırmak hem savaşa göre daha az maliyetlidir hem de çıkarlarını korumak açısından daha büyük prestij ve itibar sağlar. Devletler, caydırıcı politikaları karşı tarafa iletebilmek adınaysa genellikle sinyal gönderme yöntemine başvururlar. Söz konusu sinyaller bazen açık bazen de kısmi ve belirsiz nitelikler taşıyabilir. Yine sinyaller bazen yalnızca sert bazen de işbirlikçi unsurları bünyesinde barındırabilirler. Uluslararası ilişkilerden siyasal iletişime ve siyasal psikolojiye kadar çok disiplinli bir çalışma literatürüne karşılık gelen bu sinyalizasyon çalışmaları, yoğun bir akademik ilgi alanı olduğu kadar pratikteki aktörler açısından oldukça işlevsel olması sebebiyle de devlet davranışı tartışmalarının her geçen gün biraz daha merkezine oturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada da öncelikle caydırıcılığın tarihsel gelişimi ve farklı caydırıcılık türleri üzerinden güncel caydırıcılık teorisi üzerine odaklanılacaktır. Ardından caydırıcılığın uygulama alanı olan sinyalizasyon tartışmalarına geçilecek ve devletlerin hangi sinyal türleriyle ve nasıl bir motivasyonla karşı tarafla iletişim kurup arzu ettikleri sonuca ulaşmaya çalıştıkları analiz edilecektir. Akabinde ise ele alınan sinyalizasyon literatürü uluslararası politikadaki önemli örneklerle pekiştirilmeye çalışılacaktır. Son olarak da yükselen yeni trendler üzerinden hem caydırıcılığın hem de sinyalizasyon tartışmalarının yeni dönemdeki değişim süreçleri tartışmasıyla çalışma tamamlanacaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Uluslararası Caydırıcılık, Sinyalizasyon Stratejileri, Yeni Trendler.

Kaynakça

  • Aral, B. (2019). “The World Is Bigger than Five”: A Salutary Manifesto of Turkey’s New International Outlook. Insight Turkey. https://www.insightturkey.com/articles/the-world-is-bigger-than-five-a-salutary-manifesto-of-turkeys-new-international-outlook
  • Becca Wasser. (2023). Campaign of Denial. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/campaign-of-denial
  • Blainey, G. (1988). Causes of War, 3rd Ed. Simon and Schuster.
  • Byman, D., & Waxman, M. (2002). The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might. Cambridge University Press. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commercial_books/CB400.html
  • Crawford. (2021). Economic countermeasures: A new Western deterrent? IISS. https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2021/08/economic-countermeasures-new-western-deterrent/
  • Dwyer & Mclean. (2015). Nuclear Deterrence, Missile Systems and the Security of Turkey in the “New” Middle East. Insight Turkey. https://www.insightturkey.com/articles/nuclear-deterrence-missile-systems-and-the-security-of-turkey-in-the-new-middle-east
  • Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization, 49(3), 379-414.
  • Fearon, J. D. (1997). Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(1), 68-90.
  • Freedman. (2004). Deterrence | Wiley. Wiley.Com. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Deterrence-p-9780745631134
  • Freedman, S. L., & Freedman, S. L. (2013). Strategy: A History. Oxford University Press.
  • Gressel, G. (2022, Temmuz 7). Shadow of the bomb: Russia’s nuclear threats. ECFR. https://ecfr.eu/article/shadow-of-the-bomb-russias-nuclear-threats/
  • GUISINGER, A., & SMITH, A. (2002). Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(2), 175-200. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002702046002001
  • Hintz, L., & Banks, D. E. (2022). Symbolic Amplification and Suboptimal Weapons Procurement: Explaining Turkey’s S-400 Program. Security Studies, 31(5), 826-856. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2022.2153733
  • Huth, P. K. (1991). Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. Yale University Press.
  • Huth, P. K. (1999). DETERRENCE AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debates. Annual Review of Political Science, 2(1), 25-48. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.25
  • Johnson & Joiner. (2019). Power changes, alliance credibility, and extended deterrence—Jesse C Johnson, Stephen Joiner, 2021. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0738894218824735
  • Keane. (2005). Dictionary of Modern Strategy and Tactics. U.S. Naval Institute. https://www.usni.org/press/books/dictionary-modern-strategy-and-tactics
  • Leng. (2000). Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises. https://press.umich.edu/Books/B/Bargaining-and-Learning-in-Recurring-Crises2
  • Mazarr, M. J. (2018). Understanding Deterrence.
  • Mearsheimer. (1983). Conventional Deterrence by John J. Mearsheimer | Hardcover. Cornell University Press. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801415692/conventional-deterrence/
  • Morgan, P. M. (1977). Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis. SAGE Publications.
  • Nutt & Pauly. (2021). Caught Red-Handed: How States Wield Proof to Coerce Wrongdoers. Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs. https://home.watson.brown.edu/news/2021-10-28/caught-red-handed-how-states-wield-proof-coerce-wrongdoers
  • Ochmanek, D. (2017). Recommendations for a Future National Defense Strategy. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/CT484
  • Pape. (2018). Bombing to Win by Robert A. Pape | eBook. Cornell University Press. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801471506/bombing-to-win/
  • Payne. (2017). Payne, Keith B., Nuclear Deterrence In a New Age, No. 426, December 13, 2017 – Nipp. https://nipp.org/information_series/payne-keith-b-nuclear-deterrence-in-a-new-age-information-series-no-426/
  • Perot. (2021). Solidarity and deterrence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Recherches & Documents :: Foundation for Strategic Research :: FRS. https://www.frstrategie.org/en/publications/recherches-et-documents/solidarity-and-deterrence-eastern-mediterranean-2021
  • Pettyjohn, S. L. (2021). The Demand for Responsiveness in Past U.S. Military Operations. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR4280.html
  • Quek, K. (2021). Four Costly Signaling Mechanisms. American Political Science Review, 115(2), 537-549. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420001094
  • Said, Benoid, & Stephen. (2023). Https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25
  • Sartori, A. E. (2002). The Might of the Pen: A Reputational Theory of Communication in International Disputes. International Organization, 56(1), 121-149.
  • Schelling. (1966). Arms and Influence. Yale University Press. https://yalebooks.yale.edu/9780300246742/arms-and-influence
  • Schelling T.C. (1960). The Strategy of Conflict. Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674840317
  • Singer, P. W., & Brooking, E. T. (2018). LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media. National Defense, 103(779), 18-19.
  • Sneyder & Diesing. (1977). Conflict Among Nations | Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691630410/conflict-among-nations
  • Sylvan, D. A., & Thorson, S. J. (1992). Ontologies, Problem Representation, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36(4), 709-732. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002792036004005
  • Tertrais. (2021). Reassurance and Deterrence in the Mediterranean: The Franco-Greek Defense Deal. Institut Montaigne. https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/reassurance-and-deterrence-mediterranean-franco-greek-defense-deal
  • Walt. (1987). The Origins of Alliances by Stephen M. Walt | Paperback. Cornell University Press. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801494185/the-origins-of-alliances/
  • Wuthnow, J. (2017). Beyond Imposing Costs: Recalibrating U.S. Strategy in the South China Sea. Asia Policy, 24, 123-138.
  • Zeitzoff, T. (2018). Does Social Media Influence Conflict? Evidence from the 2012 Gaza Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(1), 29-63. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002716650925

Deterrence in Inter-State Communication: International Signaling Strategies

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2, 441 – 459, 30.07.2024

Hayati Ünlü

https://doi.org/10.17680/erciyesiletisim.1444923

Öz

In the era of global Great Powers, it may prove to be more expensive for nations to either participate in conflict or cooperate. Nevertheless, deterrence becomes a significant point of reference for nations desiring to avoid war while also influencing the decisions and behaviors of their rivals. Discouraging an adversary’s willingness to fight is not only less expensive than actual warfare, but also provides greater prestige and credibility for safeguarding national interests. In order to communicate deterrence policies to the other side, states often resort to signaling. Sometimes these signals are explicit, sometimes partial and ambiguous. Signaling can also sometimes be exclusively harsh and sometimes cooperative. Signaling studies, which pertain to a multidisciplinary literature spanning international relations to political communication and psychology, are increasingly critical in debates on state behavior. This is not only due to their academic significance but also their practical utility for actors. This study will examine the historical progression of deterrence and current deterrence theories utilizing various types of deterrence. The next section will discuss the use of signaling as a means of deterrence, analyzing the types of signals and the motivation of states to communicate with their adversaries in order to achieve their objectives. Following this, the literature on signaling will be reinforced with significant examples from international politics. Lastly, this study will conclude by discussing the transformative processes of deterrence and signaling debates in the modern era, taking into account emerging trends.

Anahtar Kelimeler

International Deterrence, Signaling Strategies, New Trends.

Kaynakça

  • Aral, B. (2019). “The World Is Bigger than Five”: A Salutary Manifesto of Turkey’s New International Outlook. Insight Turkey. https://www.insightturkey.com/articles/the-world-is-bigger-than-five-a-salutary-manifesto-of-turkeys-new-international-outlook
  • Becca Wasser. (2023). Campaign of Denial. https://www.cnas.org/publications/reports/campaign-of-denial
  • Blainey, G. (1988). Causes of War, 3rd Ed. Simon and Schuster.
  • Byman, D., & Waxman, M. (2002). The Dynamics of Coercion: American Foreign Policy and the Limits of Military Might. Cambridge University Press. https://www.rand.org/pubs/commercial_books/CB400.html
  • Crawford. (2021). Economic countermeasures: A new Western deterrent? IISS. https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2021/08/economic-countermeasures-new-western-deterrent/
  • Dwyer & Mclean. (2015). Nuclear Deterrence, Missile Systems and the Security of Turkey in the “New” Middle East. Insight Turkey. https://www.insightturkey.com/articles/nuclear-deterrence-missile-systems-and-the-security-of-turkey-in-the-new-middle-east
  • Fearon, J. D. (1995). Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization, 49(3), 379-414.
  • Fearon, J. D. (1997). Signaling Foreign Policy Interests: Tying Hands versus Sinking Costs. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 41(1), 68-90.
  • Freedman. (2004). Deterrence | Wiley. Wiley.Com. https://www.wiley.com/en-us/Deterrence-p-9780745631134
  • Freedman, S. L., & Freedman, S. L. (2013). Strategy: A History. Oxford University Press.
  • Gressel, G. (2022, Temmuz 7). Shadow of the bomb: Russia’s nuclear threats. ECFR. https://ecfr.eu/article/shadow-of-the-bomb-russias-nuclear-threats/
  • GUISINGER, A., & SMITH, A. (2002). Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(2), 175-200. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002702046002001
  • Hintz, L., & Banks, D. E. (2022). Symbolic Amplification and Suboptimal Weapons Procurement: Explaining Turkey’s S-400 Program. Security Studies, 31(5), 826-856. https://doi.org/10.1080/09636412.2022.2153733
  • Huth, P. K. (1991). Extended Deterrence and the Prevention of War. Yale University Press.
  • Huth, P. K. (1999). DETERRENCE AND INTERNATIONAL CONFLICT: Empirical Findings and Theoretical Debates. Annual Review of Political Science, 2(1), 25-48. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.25
  • Johnson & Joiner. (2019). Power changes, alliance credibility, and extended deterrence—Jesse C Johnson, Stephen Joiner, 2021. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0738894218824735
  • Keane. (2005). Dictionary of Modern Strategy and Tactics. U.S. Naval Institute. https://www.usni.org/press/books/dictionary-modern-strategy-and-tactics
  • Leng. (2000). Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises. https://press.umich.edu/Books/B/Bargaining-and-Learning-in-Recurring-Crises2
  • Mazarr, M. J. (2018). Understanding Deterrence.
  • Mearsheimer. (1983). Conventional Deterrence by John J. Mearsheimer | Hardcover. Cornell University Press. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801415692/conventional-deterrence/
  • Morgan, P. M. (1977). Deterrence: A Conceptual Analysis. SAGE Publications.
  • Nutt & Pauly. (2021). Caught Red-Handed: How States Wield Proof to Coerce Wrongdoers. Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs. https://home.watson.brown.edu/news/2021-10-28/caught-red-handed-how-states-wield-proof-coerce-wrongdoers
  • Ochmanek, D. (2017). Recommendations for a Future National Defense Strategy. RAND Corporation. https://doi.org/10.7249/CT484
  • Pape. (2018). Bombing to Win by Robert A. Pape | eBook. Cornell University Press. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801471506/bombing-to-win/
  • Payne. (2017). Payne, Keith B., Nuclear Deterrence In a New Age, No. 426, December 13, 2017 – Nipp. https://nipp.org/information_series/payne-keith-b-nuclear-deterrence-in-a-new-age-information-series-no-426/
  • Perot. (2021). Solidarity and deterrence in the Eastern Mediterranean: Recherches & Documents :: Foundation for Strategic Research :: FRS. https://www.frstrategie.org/en/publications/recherches-et-documents/solidarity-and-deterrence-eastern-mediterranean-2021
  • Pettyjohn, S. L. (2021). The Demand for Responsiveness in Past U.S. Military Operations. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR4280.html
  • Quek, K. (2021). Four Costly Signaling Mechanisms. American Political Science Review, 115(2), 537-549. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0003055420001094
  • Said, Benoid, & Stephen. (2023). Https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25
  • Sartori, A. E. (2002). The Might of the Pen: A Reputational Theory of Communication in International Disputes. International Organization, 56(1), 121-149.
  • Schelling. (1966). Arms and Influence. Yale University Press. https://yalebooks.yale.edu/9780300246742/arms-and-influence
  • Schelling T.C. (1960). The Strategy of Conflict. Harvard University Press. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/books/9780674840317
  • Singer, P. W., & Brooking, E. T. (2018). LikeWar: The Weaponization of Social Media. National Defense, 103(779), 18-19.
  • Sneyder & Diesing. (1977). Conflict Among Nations | Princeton University Press. https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691630410/conflict-among-nations
  • Sylvan, D. A., & Thorson, S. J. (1992). Ontologies, Problem Representation, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 36(4), 709-732. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002792036004005
  • Tertrais. (2021). Reassurance and Deterrence in the Mediterranean: The Franco-Greek Defense Deal. Institut Montaigne. https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/reassurance-and-deterrence-mediterranean-franco-greek-defense-deal
  • Walt. (1987). The Origins of Alliances by Stephen M. Walt | Paperback. Cornell University Press. https://www.cornellpress.cornell.edu/book/9780801494185/the-origins-of-alliances/
  • Wuthnow, J. (2017). Beyond Imposing Costs: Recalibrating U.S. Strategy in the South China Sea. Asia Policy, 24, 123-138.
  • Zeitzoff, T. (2018). Does Social Media Influence Conflict? Evidence from the 2012 Gaza Conflict. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(1), 29-63. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022002716650925

Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İletişim Çalışmaları
BölümYabancı Dillerdeki Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Hayati Ünlü MİLLİ SAVUNMA ÜNİVERSİTESİ, MÜŞTEREK HARP ENSTİTÜSÜ 0000-0002-2645-5930 Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi29 Temmuz 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi30 Temmuz 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi29 Şubat 2024
Kabul Tarihi23 Temmuz 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APAÜnlü, H. (2024). Deterrence in Inter-State Communication: International Signaling Strategies. Erciyes İletişim Dergisi, 11(2), 441-459. https://doi.org/10.17680/erciyesiletisim.1444923

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