Exploring Inflation Dynamics with the Phillips Curve in Türkiye: Evidence from the Markov Regime Switching Model

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2, 285 – 296, 30.04.2024

Ali İlhan

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1427745

Öz

Birçok gelişmiş ve yükselen piyasa ekonomisinin aksine enflasyon, Türkiye ekonomisi için COVID-19 pandemisi öncesinde de bir problemdi. Türkiye, 1990’lı yıllarda bazı aylarda üç haneli rakamlara ulaşan şiddetli bir enflasyon yaşadı. 2000’li yıllarda esnek döviz kuru ve örtük enflasyon hedeflemesi çerçevesinde başarılı bir dezenflasyon programı ile enflasyon tek haneli rakamlara düşürülmüş olsa da küresel finansal kriz sonrası dönemde fiyat istikrarı yeniden bir sorun haline geldi. Enflasyon 2010’lu yıllarda giderek arttı ve 2021’in sonlarında kontrolden çıktı. Bu çalışma, Phillips eğrisi çerçevesini kullanarak Türkiye’deki enflasyon dinamiklerini farklı enflasyon ortamları için incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, döviz kuru ve petrol fiyatları ile genişletilmiş Phillips eğrisi denklemi, Ocak 2006 ve Eylül 2023 arası dönem için Markov rejim değişim modeli ile tahmin edilmiştir. Örneklemde düşük ve yüksek enflasyon rejimleri olmak üzere iki rejim tanımlanmıştır. Tahmin sonuçlarına göre, Phillips eğrisi her iki rejimde de geçersizdir. İşsizlik açığı, cari enflasyon üzerindeki negatif etkisine karşın istatistiksel olarak anlamsızdır. Geriye dönük enflasyon katsayısının yüksek rejimde artması, Türkiye’de enflasyon hedeflemesi öncesi dönemde hakim olan endeksleme davranışının yeniden canlandığını yansıtmaktadır. Petrol fiyatlarının olumlu etkisi yalnızca düşük rejimde istatiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Döviz kurundaki artış her iki rejimde de enflasyonu anlamlı biçimde arttırırken yüksek enflasyon rejimindeki etkisi daha büyüktür. Bu ampirik bulgular, Türkiye’de enflasyonun kontrol altına alınmasında öncelikli konuların enflasyon ataleti ve döviz kuru istikrarı olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enflasyon, Markov rejim değişim modeli, para politikası, Phillips eğrisi, Türkiye

Kaynakça

  • Abbas, S. K., Bhattacharya, P. S., & Sgro, P. (2016). The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical evidence, International Review of Economics and Finance, 43, 378-403. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.01.003
  • Altuğ, S., & Bildirici, M. (2012). Business Cycles in Developed and Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Univariate Markov Switching Approach, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 48(6), 4-38. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X480601
  • Arabacı, Ö., & Eryiğit, K. Y. (2012). A Threshold Regression Estimation of Philips Curve: Turkey Case, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(2), 29-47.
  • Arabacı, Ö., & Özdemir, M. (2014). A Non-Causal Autoregression Based Estimation of New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the Turkish Economy, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 29(342), 45-70. https://doi.org/10.3848/iif.2014.342.4183
  • Ardor, H. N., Tokatlıoğlu, İ., & Öztürk, F. (2014). Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Enflasyonun Üçgen Modeli İle Phillips Eğrisi Denklemi Tahmini, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 25(91), 29-53.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Soon, S-V., & Wohar, M. E. (2017). Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries, International Review of Economics and Finance, 51, 245-257. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.05.009
  • Ball, L., & Mazumder, S. (2019). A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 51(1), 111-137. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12502
  • Bari, B., & Adalı, Z. (2020). How Oil Prices Drive Inflation in Turkish Economy: Two Different Channels, Fiscaoeconomia, 4(3), 705-721. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.786956
  • Bari, B., & Şıklar, İ. (2021). An Estimation of the Open Economy Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Turkey, Fiscaoeconomia, 5(3), 1081-1100. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.981011
  • Başer Andiç, S., Küçük, H., & Öğünç, F. (2015). Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(2), 418-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1019771
  • Bildirici, M. E., & Ozaksoy Sonustun (2018). Backward bending structure of Phillips Curve in Japan, France, Turkey and the U.S.A., Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31(1), 537-549. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1441046
  • Bildirici, M. E. (2020). The relationship between cement production, mortality rate, air quality, and economic growth for China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and the USA: MScBVAR and MScBGC analysis, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 2248-2263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06586-w
  • Bildirici, M., & Kayıkçı, F. (2021). The Relation Between Growth, Energy Imports, Militarization and Current Account Balance in India, Brazil, Turkey and Pakistan, Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 55(3), 37-54. https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/55.3.21.03
  • Binici, M., Centorrino, S., Cevik, S., & Gwon, G. (2022). Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe, IMF Working Paper, 2022/241. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/12/09/Here-Comes-the-Change-The-Role-of-Global-and-Domestic-Factors-in-Post-Pandemic-Inflation-in-525754 Accessed: 24.12.2023
  • Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383–398. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0
  • CBRT (2023). Inflation Report, 2023-IV. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Reports/Inflation+Report/2023/Inflation+Report+2023+-+IV Accessed: 12.01.2024.
  • CBRT (2024a). Inflation Data, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Statistics/Inflation+Data Accessed: 12.01.2024.
  • CBRT (2024b). Central Bank Interest Rates, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Central+Bank+Interest+Rates/1+Week+Repo Accessed: 12.01.2024.
  • Chowdhury, K. B., & Sarkar, N. (2017). Is the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Some Emerging Economies, Journal of Quantitative Economics, 15, 427-449. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-016-0059-y
  • Costain, J., Nakov, A., & Petit, B. (2022). Flattening of the Phillips Curve with State-Dependent Prices and Wages, The Economic Journal, 132(642), 546-581. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab063
  • Çatık, A. N., Martin, C., & Önder, A. Ö. (2011). Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey, Journal of Economic Studies, 38(5), 546-561. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581111161814
  • Çatık, A. N., & Önder, A. Ö. (2011). Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices in Turkey: A Regime-Switching Approach, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(5), 125-140. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X470506
  • Çufadar, A. (2023). Türkiye’de yakın dönem merkez bankacılığı ve uygulanan politikaların sonuçları, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 50, 81-114.
  • Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M., & Rubin, D. B. (1977). Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Methodological), 39(1), 1-38.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
  • Dorn, J. A. (2020). The Phillips Curve: Poor Guide for Monetary Policy, Cato Journal, 40(1), 133–152.
  • Forbes, K., Gagnon, J., & Collins, C. (2021). Pandemic inflation and nonlinear, global Phillips curves, VOXEU Columns, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/pandemic-inflation-and-nonlinear-global-phillips-curves Accessed: 27.12.2023
  • Forbes, K., Gagnon, J. E., & Collins, C. G. (2022). Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World, Economia, 45(89), 52-72. https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202201.003
  • FRED (2024). Federal Reserve Economic Data, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ Accessed: 02.01.2024.
  • Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy, The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17.
  • Galı́, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). Inflation dynamic: A structural econometric analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), 195-222. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00023-9
  • Gayaker, S., Ağaslan, E., Alkan, B., & Çiçek, S. (2021). The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey, International Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 571-587. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.07.004
  • Gözgör, G. (2013). The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey, International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 6(1), 7–18.
  • Gülşen, E., & Kara, H. (2021). Policy Performance and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations, International Journal of Central Banking, 17(4), 179-224.
  • Gürkaynak, R. S., Kantur, Z., Taş, M. A., & Yıldırım-Karaman, S. (2015). Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 30(356), 09-38. https://doi.org/10.3848/iif.2015.356.4592
  • Gürkaynak, R. S., Kısacıkoğlu, B., Lee, S. S., & Şimşek, A. (2023a). Türkiye’nin Enflasyon Tercihleri. A. S. Akat and S. Gürsel (Eds.), Çıkmaz Yol: Dünden Yarına Türkiye Ekonomisi, (pp. 123-148) In. İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Gürkaynak, R. S., Kısacıkoğlu, B., & Lee, S. S. (2023b). Exchange rate and inflation under weak monetary policy: Turkey verifies theory, Economic Policy, 1-42. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad020
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1990). Analysis of time series subject to change in regime. Journal of Econometrics, 45(1-2), 39-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(90)90093-9
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time series analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Hasanov, M., Araç, A., & Telatar, F. (2010). Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey, Economic Modelling, 27, 1103-1115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.03.009
  • İlhan, A., Akdeniz, C., & Özdemir, M. (2023). Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Evidence from Turkey, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 26(3), 162-182.
  • Jordà, Ò., & Nechio, F. (2020). Inflation Globally. G. Castex, J. Gali, and D. Saravia (Eds.), Changing Inflation Dynamics, Evolving Monetary Policy (pp. 269-316) In. Central Bank of Chile Series on Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies, 27.
  • Jordà, Ò., & Nechio, F. (2023). Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic, European Economic Review, 156, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104474
  • Jørgensen, P. L., & Lansing, K. J. (2023). Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Slope of the Phillips Curve, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, 2019-27. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2019-27
  • Kantur, Z., & Özcan, G. (2022). Dissecting Turkish inflation: theory, fact, and illusion, Economic Change and Restructuring, 55, 1543-1553. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09357-1
  • Kara, H., & Sarıkaya, Ç. (2021). Enflasyon Dinamiklerindeki Değişim: Döviz Kuru Geçişkenliği Güçleniyor Mu?, Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum Working Paper Series, 2121. https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/erf_wp_2121.pdf Accessed: 15.01.2024.
  • Karahan, P., & Çağlarırmak Uslu, N. (2018). A Dynamic Analysis on the Validity of the Phillips Curve for Turkey, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 55(636), 89-99.
  • Kocoglu, M. (2023). Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective, Economic Change and Restructuring, 56, 2825–2853. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09532-6
  • Koç, Ü., Öğünç, F., & Özmen, M. U. (2021). The Role of Expectations in the Inflation Process in Turkey: Have the Dynamics Changed Recently? CBRT Working Paper, 21/02. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/ Accessed: 27.12.2023
  • Lipsey, R. G. (1960). The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957: A Further Analysis, Economica, 27(105), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.2307/2551424
  • Lucas Jr., R. E. (1976). Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. In. K. Brunner and A. Meltzer (Eds.), The Phillips curve and labour markets (19-46). New York: Carneige-Rochester conference series on public policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(76)80003-6
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2001). The Inexorable and Mysterious Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment, The Economic Journal, 111(471), C45-C61.
  • Mazumder, S. (2012). European Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Southern Economic Journal, 79(2), 322–349. https://doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-2011.149
  • OECD (2024). Inflation (CPI) Data, https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm Accessed: 10.01.2024.
  • Orhangazi, Ö., & Yeldan, A. E. (2023). “Türkiye Modeli” – 2021 ve Sonrası: Rastgele hedefler, gerçekleşmeler ve bir bilanço, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 50, 171-194.
  • Öğünç, F., Özmen, M. U., & Sarıkaya, Ç. (2018). Inflation Dynamics in Turkey from a Bayesian perspective, CBRT Working Paper, 18/10. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/ Accessed: 28.12.2023.
  • Önder, A. Ö. (2009). The stability of the Turkish Phillips curve and alternative regime shifting models, Applied Economics, 41(20), 2597–2604. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222645
  • Özmen, İ., & Özşahin, Ş. (2023). Effects of global energy and price fluctuations on Turkey’s inflation: new evidence, Economic Change and Restructuring, 56, 2695-2728. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09530-8
  • Phelps, E. S. (1967). Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time, Economica, 34(135), 254–281. https://doi.org/10.2307/2552025
  • Phillips, A. W. (1958). The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957, Economica, 25(100), 283–299. https://doi.org/10.2307/2550759
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
  • Samuelson, P. A., & Solow, R. M. (1960). Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy, The American Economic Review, 50(2), 177–194.
  • Saraçoğlu, B., Yiğit, Ö., & Koçak, N. A. (2014). Türkiye İçin Çıktı Açığı Tahmininde Alternatif Yöntemler, Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(3), 43-65.
  • Sargent, T. J. (1971). A Note on the “Accelerationist” Controversy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 3(3), 721-725. https://doi.org/10.2307/1991369
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2020). Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 52(S2), 393–428. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12757
  • Ulug, M., Işık, S., & Mert, M. (2023). The effectiveness of ultra-loose monetary policy in a high inflation economy: a time-varying causality analysis for Turkey, Economic Change and Restructuring, 56, 2855-2887. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09535-3
  • Wardhono, A., Nasir, M. A., Qori’ah, C. G., & Indrawati, Y. (2021). Movement of Inflation and New Keynesian Phillips Curve in ASEAN, Economies, 9(1), 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9010034
  • Yazgan, M. E., & Yilmazkuday, H. (2005). Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 9(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1228
  • Yilmazkuday, H. (2022). Drivers of Turkish Inflation. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 84, 315-323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.03.005 .

Exploring Inflation Dynamics with the Phillips Curve in Türkiye: Evidence from the Markov Regime Switching Model

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2, 285 – 296, 30.04.2024

Ali İlhan

https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1427745

Öz

Unlike in many advanced and emerging market economies, inflation was already a problem for the Turkish economy before the COVID-19 pandemic. During the 1990s, Türkiye experienced severe inflation, which reached three digits in some months. Although inflation was reduced to single digits in the 2000s through a successful disinflation program under an implicit inflation targeting framework with a flexible exchange rate regime, price stability became a problem again after the global financial crisis. Inflation gradually increased during the 2010s and became out of control after late 2021. This study aims to explore inflation dynamics in Türkiye using the Phillips curve framework for different inflation environments. To this end, the Phillips curve equation, augmented with the exchange rate and oil prices, is estimated using the Markov regime switching model between January 2006 and September 2023. Two regimes are identified in the sample, namely low- and high-inflation regimes. According to the estimation results, the Phillips curve is invalid in both regimes. The unemployment gap is statistically insignificant despite its negative impact on current inflation. The increasing coefficient of backward inflation in the high regime reflects the resurgent indexation behavior, which was dominant before inflation targeting was introduced in Türkiye. The positive impact of oil prices is only statistically significant in the low regime. While an increase in the exchange rate significantly raises inflation in both regimes, the effect is greater in the high-inflation regime. These empirical findings indicate that the primary issues for controlling inflation in Türkiye are inflation inertia and exchange rate stability.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Inflation, Markov regime switching model, monetary policy, the Phillips curve, Türkiye

Kaynakça

  • Abbas, S. K., Bhattacharya, P. S., & Sgro, P. (2016). The new Keynesian Phillips curve: An update on recent empirical evidence, International Review of Economics and Finance, 43, 378-403. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2016.01.003
  • Altuğ, S., & Bildirici, M. (2012). Business Cycles in Developed and Emerging Economies: Evidence from a Univariate Markov Switching Approach, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 48(6), 4-38. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X480601
  • Arabacı, Ö., & Eryiğit, K. Y. (2012). A Threshold Regression Estimation of Philips Curve: Turkey Case, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 7(2), 29-47.
  • Arabacı, Ö., & Özdemir, M. (2014). A Non-Causal Autoregression Based Estimation of New Keynesian Phillips Curve for the Turkish Economy, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 29(342), 45-70. https://doi.org/10.3848/iif.2014.342.4183
  • Ardor, H. N., Tokatlıoğlu, İ., & Öztürk, F. (2014). Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Enflasyonun Üçgen Modeli İle Phillips Eğrisi Denklemi Tahmini, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 25(91), 29-53.
  • Baharumshah, A. Z., Soon, S-V., & Wohar, M. E. (2017). Markov-switching analysis of exchange rate pass-through: Perspective from Asian countries, International Review of Economics and Finance, 51, 245-257. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2017.05.009
  • Ball, L., & Mazumder, S. (2019). A Phillips Curve with Anchored Expectations and Short-Term Unemployment, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 51(1), 111-137. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12502
  • Bari, B., & Adalı, Z. (2020). How Oil Prices Drive Inflation in Turkish Economy: Two Different Channels, Fiscaoeconomia, 4(3), 705-721. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.786956
  • Bari, B., & Şıklar, İ. (2021). An Estimation of the Open Economy Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve for Turkey, Fiscaoeconomia, 5(3), 1081-1100. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.981011
  • Başer Andiç, S., Küçük, H., & Öğünç, F. (2015). Inflation Dynamics in Turkey: In Pursuit of a Domestic Cost Measure, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(2), 418-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1019771
  • Bildirici, M. E., & Ozaksoy Sonustun (2018). Backward bending structure of Phillips Curve in Japan, France, Turkey and the U.S.A., Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 31(1), 537-549. https://doi.org/10.1080/1331677X.2018.1441046
  • Bildirici, M. E. (2020). The relationship between cement production, mortality rate, air quality, and economic growth for China, India, Brazil, Turkey, and the USA: MScBVAR and MScBGC analysis, Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 2248-2263. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-06586-w
  • Bildirici, M., & Kayıkçı, F. (2021). The Relation Between Growth, Energy Imports, Militarization and Current Account Balance in India, Brazil, Turkey and Pakistan, Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research, 55(3), 37-54. https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/55.3.21.03
  • Binici, M., Centorrino, S., Cevik, S., & Gwon, G. (2022). Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe, IMF Working Paper, 2022/241. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2022/12/09/Here-Comes-the-Change-The-Role-of-Global-and-Domestic-Factors-in-Post-Pandemic-Inflation-in-525754 Accessed: 24.12.2023
  • Calvo, G. A. (1983). Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383–398. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(83)90060-0
  • CBRT (2023). Inflation Report, 2023-IV. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Reports/Inflation+Report/2023/Inflation+Report+2023+-+IV Accessed: 12.01.2024.
  • CBRT (2024a). Inflation Data, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Statistics/Inflation+Data Accessed: 12.01.2024.
  • CBRT (2024b). Central Bank Interest Rates, https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Core+Functions/Monetary+Policy/Central+Bank+Interest+Rates/1+Week+Repo Accessed: 12.01.2024.
  • Chowdhury, K. B., & Sarkar, N. (2017). Is the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Some Emerging Economies, Journal of Quantitative Economics, 15, 427-449. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-016-0059-y
  • Costain, J., Nakov, A., & Petit, B. (2022). Flattening of the Phillips Curve with State-Dependent Prices and Wages, The Economic Journal, 132(642), 546-581. https://doi.org/10.1093/ej/ueab063
  • Çatık, A. N., Martin, C., & Önder, A. Ö. (2011). Relative price variability and the Phillips Curve: evidence from Turkey, Journal of Economic Studies, 38(5), 546-561. https://doi.org/10.1108/01443581111161814
  • Çatık, A. N., & Önder, A. Ö. (2011). Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices in Turkey: A Regime-Switching Approach, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 47(5), 125-140. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X470506
  • Çufadar, A. (2023). Türkiye’de yakın dönem merkez bankacılığı ve uygulanan politikaların sonuçları, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 50, 81-114.
  • Dempster, A. P., Laird, N. M., & Rubin, D. B. (1977). Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B (Methodological), 39(1), 1-38.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
  • Dorn, J. A. (2020). The Phillips Curve: Poor Guide for Monetary Policy, Cato Journal, 40(1), 133–152.
  • Forbes, K., Gagnon, J., & Collins, C. (2021). Pandemic inflation and nonlinear, global Phillips curves, VOXEU Columns, https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/pandemic-inflation-and-nonlinear-global-phillips-curves Accessed: 27.12.2023
  • Forbes, K., Gagnon, J. E., & Collins, C. G. (2022). Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve around the World, Economia, 45(89), 52-72. https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202201.003
  • FRED (2024). Federal Reserve Economic Data, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/ Accessed: 02.01.2024.
  • Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy, The American Economic Review, 58(1), 1–17.
  • Galı́, J., & Gertler, M. (1999). Inflation dynamic: A structural econometric analysis, Journal of Monetary Economics, 44(2), 195-222. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3932(99)00023-9
  • Gayaker, S., Ağaslan, E., Alkan, B., & Çiçek, S. (2021). The deterioration in credibility, destabilization of exchange rate and the rise in exchange rate pass-through in Turkey, International Review of Economics and Finance, 76, 571-587. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.iref.2021.07.004
  • Gözgör, G. (2013). The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in an Inflation Targeting Country: The Case of Turkey, International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research, 6(1), 7–18.
  • Gülşen, E., & Kara, H. (2021). Policy Performance and the Behavior of Inflation Expectations, International Journal of Central Banking, 17(4), 179-224.
  • Gürkaynak, R. S., Kantur, Z., Taş, M. A., & Yıldırım-Karaman, S. (2015). Monetary Policy in Turkey after Central Bank Independence, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 30(356), 09-38. https://doi.org/10.3848/iif.2015.356.4592
  • Gürkaynak, R. S., Kısacıkoğlu, B., Lee, S. S., & Şimşek, A. (2023a). Türkiye’nin Enflasyon Tercihleri. A. S. Akat and S. Gürsel (Eds.), Çıkmaz Yol: Dünden Yarına Türkiye Ekonomisi, (pp. 123-148) In. İstanbul: İstanbul Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları.
  • Gürkaynak, R. S., Kısacıkoğlu, B., & Lee, S. S. (2023b). Exchange rate and inflation under weak monetary policy: Turkey verifies theory, Economic Policy, 1-42. https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad020
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1990). Analysis of time series subject to change in regime. Journal of Econometrics, 45(1-2), 39-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(90)90093-9
  • Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time series analysis. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Hasanov, M., Araç, A., & Telatar, F. (2010). Nonlinearity and structural stability in the Phillips curve: Evidence from Turkey, Economic Modelling, 27, 1103-1115. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.03.009
  • İlhan, A., Akdeniz, C., & Özdemir, M. (2023). Time-Varying Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices: Evidence from Turkey, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 26(3), 162-182.
  • Jordà, Ò., & Nechio, F. (2020). Inflation Globally. G. Castex, J. Gali, and D. Saravia (Eds.), Changing Inflation Dynamics, Evolving Monetary Policy (pp. 269-316) In. Central Bank of Chile Series on Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies, 27.
  • Jordà, Ò., & Nechio, F. (2023). Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic, European Economic Review, 156, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104474
  • Jørgensen, P. L., & Lansing, K. J. (2023). Anchored Inflation Expectations and the Slope of the Phillips Curve, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper Series, 2019-27. https://doi.org/10.24148/wp2019-27
  • Kantur, Z., & Özcan, G. (2022). Dissecting Turkish inflation: theory, fact, and illusion, Economic Change and Restructuring, 55, 1543-1553. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-021-09357-1
  • Kara, H., & Sarıkaya, Ç. (2021). Enflasyon Dinamiklerindeki Değişim: Döviz Kuru Geçişkenliği Güçleniyor Mu?, Koç University-TÜSİAD Economic Research Forum Working Paper Series, 2121. https://eaf.ku.edu.tr/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/erf_wp_2121.pdf Accessed: 15.01.2024.
  • Karahan, P., & Çağlarırmak Uslu, N. (2018). A Dynamic Analysis on the Validity of the Phillips Curve for Turkey, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 55(636), 89-99.
  • Kocoglu, M. (2023). Drivers of inflation in Turkey: a new Keynesian Phillips curve perspective, Economic Change and Restructuring, 56, 2825–2853. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09532-6
  • Koç, Ü., Öğünç, F., & Özmen, M. U. (2021). The Role of Expectations in the Inflation Process in Turkey: Have the Dynamics Changed Recently? CBRT Working Paper, 21/02. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/ Accessed: 27.12.2023
  • Lipsey, R. G. (1960). The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1862-1957: A Further Analysis, Economica, 27(105), 1–31. https://doi.org/10.2307/2551424
  • Lucas Jr., R. E. (1976). Econometric policy evaluation: A critique. In. K. Brunner and A. Meltzer (Eds.), The Phillips curve and labour markets (19-46). New York: Carneige-Rochester conference series on public policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0167-2231(76)80003-6
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2001). The Inexorable and Mysterious Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment, The Economic Journal, 111(471), C45-C61.
  • Mazumder, S. (2012). European Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Southern Economic Journal, 79(2), 322–349. https://doi.org/10.4284/0038-4038-2011.149
  • OECD (2024). Inflation (CPI) Data, https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-cpi.htm Accessed: 10.01.2024.
  • Orhangazi, Ö., & Yeldan, A. E. (2023). “Türkiye Modeli” – 2021 ve Sonrası: Rastgele hedefler, gerçekleşmeler ve bir bilanço, ODTÜ Gelişme Dergisi, 50, 171-194.
  • Öğünç, F., Özmen, M. U., & Sarıkaya, Ç. (2018). Inflation Dynamics in Turkey from a Bayesian perspective, CBRT Working Paper, 18/10. https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Research/Working+Paperss/ Accessed: 28.12.2023.
  • Önder, A. Ö. (2009). The stability of the Turkish Phillips curve and alternative regime shifting models, Applied Economics, 41(20), 2597–2604. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840701222645
  • Özmen, İ., & Özşahin, Ş. (2023). Effects of global energy and price fluctuations on Turkey’s inflation: new evidence, Economic Change and Restructuring, 56, 2695-2728. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09530-8
  • Phelps, E. S. (1967). Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time, Economica, 34(135), 254–281. https://doi.org/10.2307/2552025
  • Phillips, A. W. (1958). The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957, Economica, 25(100), 283–299. https://doi.org/10.2307/2550759
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
  • Samuelson, P. A., & Solow, R. M. (1960). Analytical Aspects of Anti-Inflation Policy, The American Economic Review, 50(2), 177–194.
  • Saraçoğlu, B., Yiğit, Ö., & Koçak, N. A. (2014). Türkiye İçin Çıktı Açığı Tahmininde Alternatif Yöntemler, Business and Economics Research Journal, 5(3), 43-65.
  • Sargent, T. J. (1971). A Note on the “Accelerationist” Controversy, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 3(3), 721-725. https://doi.org/10.2307/1991369
  • Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (2020). Slack and Cyclically Sensitive Inflation, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 52(S2), 393–428. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12757
  • Ulug, M., Işık, S., & Mert, M. (2023). The effectiveness of ultra-loose monetary policy in a high inflation economy: a time-varying causality analysis for Turkey, Economic Change and Restructuring, 56, 2855-2887. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-023-09535-3
  • Wardhono, A., Nasir, M. A., Qori’ah, C. G., & Indrawati, Y. (2021). Movement of Inflation and New Keynesian Phillips Curve in ASEAN, Economies, 9(1), 34. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9010034
  • Yazgan, M. E., & Yilmazkuday, H. (2005). Inflation Dynamics of Turkey: A Structural Estimation, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 9(1), 1-13. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1228
  • Yilmazkuday, H. (2022). Drivers of Turkish Inflation. Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 84, 315-323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.03.005 .

Toplam 69 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi Teorisi (Diğer)
BölümMakaleler
Yazarlar

Ali İlhan TEKİRDAĞ NAMIK KEMAL ÜNİVERSİTESİ, İKTİSADİ VE İDARİ BİLİMLER FAKÜLTESİ, İKTİSAT BÖLÜMÜ 0000-0001-6201-5353 Türkiye

Erken Görünüm Tarihi29 Nisan 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi30 Nisan 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi29 Ocak 2024
Kabul Tarihi10 Mart 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024Cilt: 25 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APAİlhan, A. (2024). Exploring Inflation Dynamics with the Phillips Curve in Türkiye: Evidence from the Markov Regime Switching Model. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 25(2), 285-296. https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1427745

Download or read online: Click here