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Future forecast and economic perspective of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors Skip to content Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 80 – 87, 15.07.2024
Ülge Taş
https://doi.org/10.58201/utsobilder.1484532
Öz Various policies aim to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, placing specific limits on different sectors, and impacting the environment and the economy. However, fossil-based energy systems are continuously developing in rapidly industrializing regions. Balancing the immediate costs of transitioning with the long-term benefits of sustainability is key in addressing the distribution of GHG emissions across sectors in Turkey from an economic perspective. This study aims to provide a future forecast and economic perspective on the distribution of GHG emissions by sectors in Turkey. Depending on this purpose, Econometric Views (EViews) 12 software was used to analyze the collected data. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been used to predict future values. The study predicts that greenhouse gas emissions will increase by 5.5% in 2026 compared to 2022. The energy sector will continue to have the highest share of emissions, while the agricultural sector will experience the most significant increase. Additionally, emissions from industrial processes and product use are expected to rise, while emissions from waste are expected to decrease between 2022 and 2026.
Anahtar Kelimeler ARIMA, Economic Improvement, Future Forecast, GHG Emission, Reduce Carbon Emission.
Kaynakça Arrhenius, S. (1896). On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. London, Edinburgh, Dublin Philos. Mag. J. Sci., Ser. 5, 41, 237-276. Bolin, B. & Eriksson, E. (1959): Changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and sea due to fossil fuel combustion. In: Bolin, B. (Ed.): The atmosphere and the sea in motion. Scientific contributions to the Rossby Memorial Volume. The Rockefeller Institute Press, New York, 130-142. Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control, Wiley. Callendar, G.S. (1938): The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 64, 223-240. Dino, I. G., & Akgül, C. M. (2019). Impact of climate change on the existing residential building stock in Turkey: An analysis on energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and occupant comfort. Renewable Energy, 141, 828-846. Durán-Romero, G., López, A. M., Beliaeva, T., Ferasso, M., Garonne, C., & Jones, P. (2020). Bridging the gap between circular economy and climate change mitigation policies through eco-innovations and Quintuple Helix Model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 160, 120246. Eviews (2020). Eviews User’s Guide I. https://cdn1.eviews.com/EViews%2012%20Users%20Guide%20I.pdf. (access 18.04.2024). Gautam, M., & Agrawal, M. (2021). Greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management: A review of global scenario. Carbon footprint case studies: municipal solid waste management, sustainable road transport and carbon sequestration, 123-160. Höhne, N., den Elzen, M., Rogelj, J., Metz, B., Fransen, T., Kuramochi, T., & Dubash, N. K. (2020). Emissions: world has four times the work or one-third of the time. Nature, 579(7797), 25-28. Hyndman, R. J., Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Stationarity and differencing. Forecasting: Principles and Practice. https://otexts.com/fpp2/stationarity.html (access 12.04.2024) IPCC (2019). Summary for Policymakers Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and GHG Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems ed P R Shukla et al accepted. https://www.ipcc.ch/2019/ (access 12.04.2024) Jakob, M., Flachsland, C., Steckel, J. C., & Urpelainen, J. (2020). Actors, objectives, context: A framework of the political economy of energy and climate policy applied to India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Energy Research & Social Science, 70, 101775. Kaygusuz, K. (2009). Energy and environmental issues relating to greenhouse gas emissions for sustainable development in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13(1), 253-270. Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., McGlade, C., Gütschow, J., Nicholls, Z., Burdon, R., … & Hackmann, B. (2022). Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 C. Nature, 604(7905), 304-309. Monteny, G. J., Groenestein, C. M., & Hilhorst, M. A. (2001). Interactions and coupling between emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from animal husbandry. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 60(1), 123-132. Olivier, J. G., Schure, K. M., & Peters, J. A. H. W. (2017). Trends in global CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 5, 1-11. Pales, J.C. & Keeling, C.D. (1965). The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in Hawaii. Journal of Geophysical Research 70, 6053-6076. Revelle, R. & Suess, H. (1957). Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO2 during past decades. Tellus 9, 18-27. SAS (2015). SAS / ETS 1.4 User’s Guide The ARIMA Procedure. https://support.sas.com/documentation/onlinedoc/ets/141/arima.pdf (access 18.04.2024)
Sera gazı emisyonlarının sektörlere göre dağılımına ilişkin gelecek tahmini ve ekonomik perspektif Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 80 – 87, 15.07.2024
Ülge Taş
https://doi.org/10.58201/utsobilder.1484532
Öz Çeşitli politikalar, sera gazı (GHG) emisyonlarını azaltmayı, farklı sektörlere belirli sınırlamalar getirmeyi ve çevreyi ve ekonomiyi etkilemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Ancak hızla sanayileşen bölgelerde fosil temelli enerji sistemleri sürekli olarak gelişmektedir. Maliyetler ile sürdürülebilirliğin uzun vadeli faydalarını dengelemek, sera gazı emisyonlarının Türkiye’deki sektörler arasındaki dağılımını ekonomik bir perspektiften ele almanın anahtarıdır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de sera gazı emisyonlarının sektörlere göre dağılımına ilişkin geleceğe yönelik bir tahmin ve ekonomik perspektif sunmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaca bağlı olarak toplanan verilerin analizinde Econometric Views (EViews) 12 yazılımı kullanılmıştır. Gelecekteki değerleri tahmin etmek için Otoregresif Entegre Hareketli Ortalama (ARIMA) modeli kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada sera gazı emisyonlarının 2026 yılında 2022 yılına göre %5,5 oranında artacağı öngörülüyor. Enerji sektörü emisyonlarda en yüksek paya sahip olmaya devam ederken, en önemli artışı da tarım sektörü yaşayacaktır. Ayrıca, endüstriyel süreçlerden ve ürün kullanımından kaynaklanan emisyonların artması, atıklardan kaynaklanan emisyonların ise 2022 ile 2026 arasında azalması beklenmektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler ARIMA, Ekonomik İyileştirme, Gelecek Tahmini, Sera Gazı Emisyonu, Karbon Emisyonunu Azaltın.
Kaynakça Arrhenius, S. (1896). On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground. London, Edinburgh, Dublin Philos. Mag. J. Sci., Ser. 5, 41, 237-276. Bolin, B. & Eriksson, E. (1959): Changes in the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere and sea due to fossil fuel combustion. In: Bolin, B. (Ed.): The atmosphere and the sea in motion. Scientific contributions to the Rossby Memorial Volume. The Rockefeller Institute Press, New York, 130-142. Box, G.E.P., Jenkins, G. M., Reinsel, G. C., Ljung, G. M. (2015). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control, Wiley. Callendar, G.S. (1938): The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 64, 223-240. Dino, I. G., & Akgül, C. M. (2019). Impact of climate change on the existing residential building stock in Turkey: An analysis on energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and occupant comfort. Renewable Energy, 141, 828-846. Durán-Romero, G., López, A. M., Beliaeva, T., Ferasso, M., Garonne, C., & Jones, P. (2020). Bridging the gap between circular economy and climate change mitigation policies through eco-innovations and Quintuple Helix Model. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 160, 120246. Eviews (2020). Eviews User’s Guide I. https://cdn1.eviews.com/EViews%2012%20Users%20Guide%20I.pdf. (access 18.04.2024). Gautam, M., & Agrawal, M. (2021). Greenhouse gas emissions from municipal solid waste management: A review of global scenario. Carbon footprint case studies: municipal solid waste management, sustainable road transport and carbon sequestration, 123-160. Höhne, N., den Elzen, M., Rogelj, J., Metz, B., Fransen, T., Kuramochi, T., & Dubash, N. K. (2020). Emissions: world has four times the work or one-third of the time. Nature, 579(7797), 25-28. Hyndman, R. J., Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Stationarity and differencing. Forecasting: Principles and Practice. https://otexts.com/fpp2/stationarity.html (access 12.04.2024) IPCC (2019). Summary for Policymakers Climate Change and Land: An IPCC Special Report on Climate Change, Desertification, Land Degradation, Sustainable Land Management, Food Security, and GHG Fluxes in Terrestrial Ecosystems ed P R Shukla et al accepted. https://www.ipcc.ch/2019/ (access 12.04.2024) Jakob, M., Flachsland, C., Steckel, J. C., & Urpelainen, J. (2020). Actors, objectives, context: A framework of the political economy of energy and climate policy applied to India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Energy Research & Social Science, 70, 101775. Kaygusuz, K. (2009). Energy and environmental issues relating to greenhouse gas emissions for sustainable development in Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 13(1), 253-270. Meinshausen, M., Lewis, J., McGlade, C., Gütschow, J., Nicholls, Z., Burdon, R., … & Hackmann, B. (2022). Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 C. Nature, 604(7905), 304-309. Monteny, G. J., Groenestein, C. M., & Hilhorst, M. A. (2001). Interactions and coupling between emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from animal husbandry. Nutrient Cycling in Agroecosystems, 60(1), 123-132. Olivier, J. G., Schure, K. M., & Peters, J. A. H. W. (2017). Trends in global CO2 and total greenhouse gas emissions. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 5, 1-11. Pales, J.C. & Keeling, C.D. (1965). The concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide in Hawaii. Journal of Geophysical Research 70, 6053-6076. Revelle, R. & Suess, H. (1957). Carbon dioxide exchange between atmosphere and ocean and the question of an increase of atmospheric CO2 during past decades. Tellus 9, 18-27. SAS (2015). SAS / ETS 1.4 User’s Guide The ARIMA Procedure. https://support.sas.com/documentation/onlinedoc/ets/141/arima.pdf (access 18.04.2024) Toplam 19 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar Birincil Dil İngilizce Konular Turizm (Diğer) Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri Yazarlar Ülge Taş AKSARAY ÜNİVERSİTESİ 0000-0002-2376-3735 Türkiye
Erken Görünüm Tarihi 12 Temmuz 2024 Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Temmuz 2024 Gönderilme Tarihi 15 Mayıs 2024 Kabul Tarihi 27 Haziran 2024 Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1
Kaynak Göster APA Taş, Ü. (2024). Future forecast and economic perspective of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Akademik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 8(1), 80-87. https://doi.org/10.58201/utsobilder.1484532 AMA Taş Ü. Future forecast and economic perspective of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors. utsobilder/IJOSSAR. Temmuz 2024;8(1):80-87. doi:10.58201/utsobilder.1484532 Chicago Taş, Ülge. “Future Forecast and Economic Perspective of the Distribution of Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sectors”. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Akademik Araştırmalar Dergisi 8, sy. 1 (Temmuz 2024): 80-87. https://doi.org/10.58201/utsobilder.1484532. EndNote Taş Ü (01 Temmuz 2024) Future forecast and economic perspective of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Akademik Araştırmalar Dergisi 8 1 80–87. IEEE Ü. Taş, “Future forecast and economic perspective of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors”, utsobilder/IJOSSAR , c. 8, sy. 1, ss. 80–87, 2024, doi: 10.58201/utsobilder.1484532. ISNAD Taş, Ülge. “Future Forecast and Economic Perspective of the Distribution of Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sectors”. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Akademik Araştırmalar Dergisi 8/1 (Temmuz 2024), 80-87. https://doi.org/10.58201/utsobilder.1484532. JAMA Taş Ü. Future forecast and economic perspective of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors. utsobilder/IJOSSAR . 2024;8:80–87. MLA Taş, Ülge. “Future Forecast and Economic Perspective of the Distribution of Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sectors”. Uluslararası Sosyal Bilimler Akademik Araştırmalar Dergisi, c. 8, sy. 1, 2024, ss. 80-87, doi:10.58201/utsobilder.1484532. Vancouver Taş Ü. Future forecast and economic perspective of the distribution of greenhouse gas emissions by sectors. utsobilder/IJOSSAR. 2024;8(1):80-7.
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