Hayat Sigortası Poliçe Sayıları Konjonktürel mi Konjonktür Karşıtı mıdır?

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 111 – 125, 16.04.2024

Janberk Okan

https://doi.org/10.59445/ijephss.1451116

Öz

Gayrisafi yurtiçi hasıla, işsizlik oranı, enflasyon, faiz oranları gibi makro iktisadi değişkenlerin sigorta sektörüne etkileri ve sigorta şirketlerinin performansları üzerine etkilerini araştıran birçok çalışma bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmadaki asıl amaç bu değişkenlerin sigortacılık sektörüne ya da sigorta şirketleri performanslarına etkilerini araştırmaktan öte, makro iktisadi değişkenlerdeki konjonktürel hareketler ile hayat sigortaları poliçe sayısındaki konjonktürel hareketi karşılaştırmaktır. Zaman serisi şeklinde ele alınmış değişkenlerin konjonktürel bileşenleri bize o değişkenin uzun dönemli davranışı hakkında bilgi vermektedir. Bu kapsamda, 2014 yılının ilk çeyreğinden 2023 yılının ikinci çeyreği sonuna kadar çeyreklik veriler ile hayat sigortaları poliçe sayılarının ve Türkiye’nin seçili makro iktisadi değişkenlerinin konjonktürel bileşenleri incelenmektedir. Çalışmada, seçilmiş değişkenlerin konjonktürel bileşenleri Hodrick-Prescott Filtresi yardımıyla eğilim (trend) bileşeninden ayrıştırılmış ve elde edilen konjonktürel bileşenler görselleştirilmiştir. Hayat sigortaları toplam poliçe sayılarının konjonktürel bileşenine baktığımızda GSYH’nın konjonktürel dalgalanmasına paralel olarak hareket ettiği görülmektedir. Diğer makro iktisadi değişkenlerin konjonktürel bileşenlerindeki hareket ve hayat sigortaları alt branşları poliçe sayılarındaki konjonktürel bileşenini hareketleri ise farklılık göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sigortacılık, Hayat Sigortaları, Poliçe Sayıları

Etik Beyan

Bu çalışmanın hazırlanma sürecinde bilimsel ve etik ilkelere uyulduğu ve yararlanılan tüm çalışmaların kaynakçada belirtildiği beyan olunur.

Destekleyen Kurum

Çalışma, kamusal, özel, ticari nitelikte ya da kâr amacı gütmeyen herhangi bir kurumdan destek alınmadan hazırlanmıştır.

Kaynakça

• Babbel, D. F. (1981). Inflation, Indexation, and Life Insurance Sales in Brazil. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 48(1), s. 111-135.
• Banerjee, R., & Majumdar, S. (2018). Impact of Firm Specific and Macroeconomic Factors on Financial Performance of the UAE Insurance Sector. Global Business and Economics Review, 20(2), s. 248-261.
• Beck, T., & Webb, I. (2003). Economic, Demographic, and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries. The World Bank Economic Review, 17(1), s. 51-88.
• Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Cargill, T. F., & Troxel, T. E. (1979). Modeling Life Insurance Savings: Some Methodological Issues. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 46(3), s. 391-410.
• Christophersen, C., & Jakubik, P. (2014). Insurance and the Macroeconomic Environment. Financial Stability Report.
• Di Matteo, L., & Emery, J. H. (2002). Wealth and the Demand for Life Insurance: Evidence from Ontoria 1982. Explorations in Economic History(39), s. 446–469.
• Dias, M. H., & Dias, J. (2010). Measuring the Cyclical Component of a Time Series: Proposal of a New Methodology. Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 30(1), s. 91-122.
• Duker, J. M. (1969). The Effects of Social Security on Life Insurance Demand by Married Couples. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 36(5), s. 525-533.
• Enders, W. (2014). Applied Econometric Time Series (4. b.). New York: John Wiley.
• Feyen, E., Lester, R., & Rocha, R. (2011). What Drives the Development of the Isnurance Sector? . Policy Research Working Paper.
• Fortune, P. (1973). A Theory of Optimal Life Insurance: Development and Tests. The Journal of Finance, 28(3), s. 587-600.
• Haiss, P., & Sümegi, K. (2008). The Relationship between Insurance and Economic Growth in Europe: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. Empirica(35), s. 405-431.
• Hakansson, N. H. (1969). Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies Under Risk, an Uncertain Lifetime, Insurance. International Economic Review, 10(3), s. 443-466.
• Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), s. 357-384.
• Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press.
• Harvey, A. C., & Jaeger, A. (1993). Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8(3), s. 231-247.
• Hodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1981). Psot-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Emprical Investigation. Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
• Kaya, E. Ö. (2015). The Effects of Firm-Specific Factors on the Profitability of Non-Life Insurance Companies in Turkey. International Journal of Financial Studies(3), s. 510-529.
• Lee, C.-C. (2013). Insurance and Real Output: The Key Role of Banking Activities. Macroeconomic Dynamics(17), s. 235-260.
• Lenten, L. J., & Rulli, D. N. (2006). A Time-Series Analysis of the Demand for Life Insurance Companies in Australia: An Unobserved Components Approach. Australian Journal of Management, 31(1), s. 41-66.
• Lewis, F. D. (1989). Dependents and the Demand for Life Insurance. The American Economic Review, 79(3), s. 452-467.
• Li, D., Moshirian, F., Nguyen, P., & Wee, T. (2007). The Demand for Life Insurance in OECD Countries. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 74(3), s. 637-652.
• Mantis, G., & Farmer, R. N. (1968). Demand for Life Insurance. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 35(2), s. 247-256.
• Mapharing, M., Otuteye, E., & Radikoko, I. (2015). Determinants of Demand for Life Insurance: The Case of Canada. Journal of Comparative International Management, 18(2), s. 1-22.
• Neumann, S. (1969). Inflation and Saving through Life Insurance. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 36(5), s. 567-582.
• Polat, A., & Akın, F. (2021). Hayat Sigortası Talebinin Belirleyicileri: Türkiye. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 35(2), s. 407-427.
• Rashid, A., & Kemal, M. U. (2018). Impact of Internal (Micro) and External (Macro) Factors on Profitability of Insurance Companies. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), s. 35-57.
• Sadhak, H. (2006). Life Insurance and the Macroeconomy: Indian Experience. Economic and Political Weekly, 41(11), s. 18-24.
• Stadler, G. W. (1994). Real Business Cycles. Journal of Economics Literatute, s. 1750–1783.
• Şamiloğlu, F., Eser, F., & Bağcı, H. (2019). Türkiye'de Sigortacılık Sektörünün Makroekonomik Değişkenlerle İlişkisi. Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(1), s. 24-40.
• Türkiye Sigortalar Birliği. (2022). Türkiye Sigortacılık Sektörü Ekonomik Etki Analizi .
• Yaari, M. E. (1965). Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer. The Review of Economic Studies, 32(2), s. 137-150.

Are Life Insurance Policy Numbers Cyclical or Counter-Cyclical?

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 111 – 125, 16.04.2024

Janberk Okan

https://doi.org/10.59445/ijephss.1451116

Öz

There are many studies investigating the effects of macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product, unemployment rate, inflation and interest rates on the insurance sector and the performance of insurance companies. The main purpose of this study is to compare the cyclical movements in macroeconomic variables with the cyclical movements in the number of life insurance policies rather than investigating the effects of these variables on the insurance sector or the performance of insurance companies. The cyclical components of variables considered as time series give us information about the long-run behavior of that variable. In this context, we analyze the cyclical components of the number of life insurance policies and selected macroeconomic variables of Turkey with quarterly data from the first quarter of 2014 to the end of the second quarter of 2023. In the study, the cyclical components of selected variables are separated from the trend component with the help of the Hodrick-Prescott Filter and the obtained cyclical components are visualized. Considering the cyclical component of the total numbers of life insurance policies, it is observed that such cyclical component moves in parallel with the cyclical fluctuations in GDP. The movements in the cyclical components of other macroeconomic variables and those in the cyclical component of the numbers of policies of life insurance sub-branches differ.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Insurance, Life Insurance, Number of Policies

Etik Beyan

It is declared that scientific and ethical principles have been followed while carrying out and writing this study and that all the sources used have been properly cited.

Destekleyen Kurum

This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Kaynakça

• Babbel, D. F. (1981). Inflation, Indexation, and Life Insurance Sales in Brazil. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 48(1), s. 111-135.
• Banerjee, R., & Majumdar, S. (2018). Impact of Firm Specific and Macroeconomic Factors on Financial Performance of the UAE Insurance Sector. Global Business and Economics Review, 20(2), s. 248-261.
• Beck, T., & Webb, I. (2003). Economic, Demographic, and Institutional Determinants of Life Insurance Consumption across Countries. The World Bank Economic Review, 17(1), s. 51-88.
• Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring Business Cycles. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Cargill, T. F., & Troxel, T. E. (1979). Modeling Life Insurance Savings: Some Methodological Issues. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 46(3), s. 391-410.
• Christophersen, C., & Jakubik, P. (2014). Insurance and the Macroeconomic Environment. Financial Stability Report.
• Di Matteo, L., & Emery, J. H. (2002). Wealth and the Demand for Life Insurance: Evidence from Ontoria 1982. Explorations in Economic History(39), s. 446–469.
• Dias, M. H., & Dias, J. (2010). Measuring the Cyclical Component of a Time Series: Proposal of a New Methodology. Brazilian Review of Econometrics, 30(1), s. 91-122.
• Duker, J. M. (1969). The Effects of Social Security on Life Insurance Demand by Married Couples. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 36(5), s. 525-533.
• Enders, W. (2014). Applied Econometric Time Series (4. b.). New York: John Wiley.
• Feyen, E., Lester, R., & Rocha, R. (2011). What Drives the Development of the Isnurance Sector? . Policy Research Working Paper.
• Fortune, P. (1973). A Theory of Optimal Life Insurance: Development and Tests. The Journal of Finance, 28(3), s. 587-600.
• Haiss, P., & Sümegi, K. (2008). The Relationship between Insurance and Economic Growth in Europe: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. Empirica(35), s. 405-431.
• Hakansson, N. H. (1969). Optimal Investment and Consumption Strategies Under Risk, an Uncertain Lifetime, Insurance. International Economic Review, 10(3), s. 443-466.
• Hamilton, J. D. (1989). A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle. Econometrica, 57(2), s. 357-384.
• Hamilton, J. D. (1994). Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press.
• Harvey, A. C., & Jaeger, A. (1993). Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8(3), s. 231-247.
• Hodrick, R. J., & Prescott, E. C. (1981). Psot-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Emprical Investigation. Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
• Kaya, E. Ö. (2015). The Effects of Firm-Specific Factors on the Profitability of Non-Life Insurance Companies in Turkey. International Journal of Financial Studies(3), s. 510-529.
• Lee, C.-C. (2013). Insurance and Real Output: The Key Role of Banking Activities. Macroeconomic Dynamics(17), s. 235-260.
• Lenten, L. J., & Rulli, D. N. (2006). A Time-Series Analysis of the Demand for Life Insurance Companies in Australia: An Unobserved Components Approach. Australian Journal of Management, 31(1), s. 41-66.
• Lewis, F. D. (1989). Dependents and the Demand for Life Insurance. The American Economic Review, 79(3), s. 452-467.
• Li, D., Moshirian, F., Nguyen, P., & Wee, T. (2007). The Demand for Life Insurance in OECD Countries. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 74(3), s. 637-652.
• Mantis, G., & Farmer, R. N. (1968). Demand for Life Insurance. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 35(2), s. 247-256.
• Mapharing, M., Otuteye, E., & Radikoko, I. (2015). Determinants of Demand for Life Insurance: The Case of Canada. Journal of Comparative International Management, 18(2), s. 1-22.
• Neumann, S. (1969). Inflation and Saving through Life Insurance. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 36(5), s. 567-582.
• Polat, A., & Akın, F. (2021). Hayat Sigortası Talebinin Belirleyicileri: Türkiye. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 35(2), s. 407-427.
• Rashid, A., & Kemal, M. U. (2018). Impact of Internal (Micro) and External (Macro) Factors on Profitability of Insurance Companies. İktisat Politikası Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(1), s. 35-57.
• Sadhak, H. (2006). Life Insurance and the Macroeconomy: Indian Experience. Economic and Political Weekly, 41(11), s. 18-24.
• Stadler, G. W. (1994). Real Business Cycles. Journal of Economics Literatute, s. 1750–1783.
• Şamiloğlu, F., Eser, F., & Bağcı, H. (2019). Türkiye'de Sigortacılık Sektörünün Makroekonomik Değişkenlerle İlişkisi. Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(1), s. 24-40.
• Türkiye Sigortalar Birliği. (2022). Türkiye Sigortacılık Sektörü Ekonomik Etki Analizi .
• Yaari, M. E. (1965). Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer. The Review of Economic Studies, 32(2), s. 137-150.

Toplam 33 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Kaynak Göster

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