Technological Unemployment and the Ai Revolution: An Investigation on Macroeconomic Consequences

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 14, 15 – 26, 13.08.2024

Abdulhalik Pınar

Öz

Yapay Zeka’nın (YZ) hızla genişlemesi, genellikle insan zekasını gerektiren görevleri yerine getirebilen bilgisayar sistemleri oluşturmayı amaçladığı için, istihdam üzerindeki etkileri hakkında kritik bir tartışmayı gündeme getirmiştir. Bu çalışma, teknolojinin hızlı gelişimi nedeniyle çalışanların becerilerinin güncelliğini yitireceği ve böylece büyük ölçekli teknolojik işsizliğe yol açabilecek riskleri incelemektedir. Aynı zamanda, YZ’nin ekonomik büyümeyi teşvik etme ve istihdam yaratma potansiyelini de göz ardı etmemektedir.
Çalışma, YZ ve teknolojik işsizlik arasındaki karmaşıklıklara derinlemesine bir bakış sunarak, bazı sektörlerin YZ ile tetiklenen işsizliğe daha yatkın olabileceğini, ancak toplam istihdam etkisinin ne homojen ne de öngörülebilir olduğunu belirtmektedir. Ayrıca, kontrolsüz YZ’nin gelir eşitsizliğini artırabileceğini ve sosyal hareketliliği engelleyebileceğini vurgulamaktadır.
Ancak bu araştırma, YZ devriminin daha umut verici bir yüzünü de ortaya koymaktadır. Yapay Zeka, yeni işler ve endüstriler yaratma, mevcut rolleri dönüştürme ve dolayısıyla üretkenliği ve iş tatminini artırma potansiyeline sahiptir. Çalışmada ele alınan örnekler, önemli iş kayıpları olmaksızın YZ’nin başarılı bir şekilde entegre edilebileceğini göstermektedir.
Sonuç olarak, bu çalışma, YZ kaynaklı işsizliğe karşı eğitim ve yeniden eğitim, evrensel temel gelir ve YZ’nin geliştirilmesi ve kullanılması için düzenlemeler gibi çözüm önerileri sunmaktadır. YZ’nin iş yaratma potansiyelini maksimize ederken, işten çıkarma risklerini en aza indiren dengeli bir yaklaşımı savunmaktadır.
Çalışma, YZ yönlendirmeli bir dünyada kapsayıcı, adil ve faydalı bir iş geleceği yaratmak için gereken esneklik, öngörü ve kolektif bağlılığın önemini vurgulamaktadır. Çalışmanın bulguları ve önerileri, gelişmekte olan YZ devriminde farklı paydaşlar için değerli içgörüler sunabilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Teknolojik İşsizlik, Yapay Zeka, İstihdam, Sosyal Hareketlilik

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, D., and Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation. American Economic Review, 107(5), 174-179.
• Allianz. (2010). The sixth Kondratieff long waves of prosperity. https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/migration/media/press/document/other/kondratieff_en.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Arntz, M., Gregory, T., and Zierahn, U. (2016). The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en. adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Autor, D. H. (2013). The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1553-1597.
• Autor, D. H. (2015). Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3-30. doi:10.1257/jep.29.3.3
• Bessen, J. (2018). AI and Jobs: The role of demand. https://www.nber.org/papers/w24235
• Bilgin, E., and Yöney, E. (2023). Dijitalleşme süreci ve kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerine etkileri. A. Pınar & E. Bilgin (Ed.), Bilişim çağında dijital dönüşüm ve ekonomi (41-75). Ankara: Turhan Kitabevi.
• Brynjolfsson, E., and McAfee, A. (2014). The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies: WW Norton & Company.
• Bughin, J., Hazan, E., Ramaswamy, S., Chui, M., Allas, T., Dahlstrom, P., Henke, N.,Trench, M. (2017). Artificial intelligence: The next digital frontier? https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/advanced%20electronics/our%20insights/how%20artificial%20intelligence%20can%20deliver%20real%20value%20to%20companies/mgi-artificial-intelligence-discussion-paper.ashx adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Frey, C. B., and Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280.
• Goos, M., Manning, A., and Salomons, A. (2014). Explaining job polarization: Routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review, 104(8), 2509-2526.
• IFR. (2022). World Robotics 2022. https://ifr.org/downloads/press2018/2022_WR_extended_version.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
• IMF. (2023). The Power and Perils of the “Artificial Hand”: Considering AI Through the Ideas of Adam Smith. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/05/sp060523-fdmd-ai-adamsmith adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Kaplan, A. M., and Haenlein, M. (2010). Users of the world, unite! The challenges and opportunities of Social Media.
• Business Horizons, 53(1), 59-68. doi:10.1016/j.bushor.2009.09.003
• Keynes, J. M. (1930). Economic possibilities for our grandchildren Essays in persuasion (pp. 321-332): Springer.
• Kondratiev, N. D. (1925). The major economic cycles. Voprosy Konjunktury, 1(1), 28-79.
• Korinek, A., and Stiglitz, J. E. (2018). Artificial intelligence and its implications for income distribution and unemployment The economics of artificial intelligence: An agenda (pp. 349-390): University of Chicago Press.
• Korotayev, A. V., and Tsirel, S. V. (2010). A spectral analysis of world GDP dynamics: Kondratieff waves, Kuznets swings, Juglar and Kitchin cycles in global economic development, and the 2008–2009 economic crisis. Structure and Dynamics, 4(1).
• Kuzior, A. (2022). Technological unemployment in the perspective of Industry 4.0. Virtual Economics, 5(1), 7-23.
• Lima, Y., Barbosa, C. E., dos Santos, H. S., and de Souza, J. M. (2021). Understanding technological unemployment: a review of causes, consequences, and solutions. Societies, 11(2), 50.
• Manyika, J., Lund, S., and Bughin, J. (2016). Digital Globalization: The New Era Global Flows. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/digital%20globalization%20the%20new%20era%20of%20global%20flows/mgi-digital-globalization-full-report.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Marinescu, I. (2018). No strings attached: The behavioral effects of US unconditional cash transfer programs. https://www.nber.org/papers/w24337 adresinden edinilmiştir.
• McCarthy, J., Minsky, M. L., Rochester, N., and Shannon, C. E. (2006). A proposal for the dartmouth summer research project on artificial intelligence, August 31, 1955. AI magazine, 27(4), 12.
• Mokyr, J., Vickers, C., and Ziebarth, N. L. (2015). The history of technological anxiety and the future of economic growth: Is this time different? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 31-50.
• Oxford. (2019). How robots change the world-what automation really means for jobs and productivity. June 2019.
• Oxford. (2023a). Artificial Intelligence. https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095426960
• Oxford. (2023b). Technological Unemployment. https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803102813279
• Perez, C. (2003). Technological revolutions and financial capital: Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Peters, M. A. (2020). Beyond technological unemployment: the future of work (Vol. 52, pp. 485-491): Taylor & Francis.
• Russell, S. J. (2010). Artificial intelligence a modern approach: Pearson Education, Inc.
• Schumpeter, J. A. (1939). Business cycles (Vol. 1): Mcgraw-hill New York.
• Standing, G. (2017). Basic income: And how we can make it happen: Penguin UK.
• Topol, E. (2019). Deep medicine: how artificial intelligence can make healthcare human again: Hachette UK.
• World Economic Forum (2018). Towards a reskilling revolution: A future of jobs for all. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOW_Reskilling_Revolution.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
• World Economic Forum (2023). Future of Jobs Report. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs-report-2023?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI8ZKd-fHMgQMVa1aRBR3WtwM7EAAYASAAEgKUePD_BwE adresinden edinilmiştir.

Technological Unemployment and the Ai Revolution: An Investigation on Macroeconomic Consequences

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 14, 15 – 26, 13.08.2024

Abdulhalik Pınar

Öz

The swift expansion of Artificial Intelligence (AI), devoted to creating computer systems capable of performing tasks usually requiring human intelligence, has sparked a crucial debate about its effects on employment. This study examines the risk of AI leading to large-scale technological unemployment, where workers’ skills become outdated due to technology. At the same time, it recognizes AI’s potential to stimulate economic growth and create jobs.
The study delves into the complexities of AI and technological unemployment, suggesting that while some sectors may be more susceptible to AI-driven job displacement, the total employment impact is neither uniform nor predictable. It also highlights the socioeconomic repercussions of unchecked AI, which could exacerbate income inequality and impede social mobility.
However, this research also reveals an optimistic facet of the AI revolution. AI holds the potential to create new jobs and industries, and to transform existing roles, thereby enhancing productivity and job satisfaction. Case studies within the study show that successful integration of AI without significant job losses is indeed possible.
In conclusion, the study proposes solutions to AI-induced unemployment, such as education and retraining, Universal Basic Income, and regulations for AI development and usage. It advocates for a balanced approach that mitigates the risks of AI-driven job displacement while maximizing AI’s job creation potential.
The study underscores the need for resilience, foresight, and collective commitment to shape an inclusive, equitable, and beneficial future of work in an AI-driven world. Its findings and recommendations could provide valuable insights for various stakeholders navigating the unfolding AI revolution.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Technological Unemployment, Artificial Intelligence, Employment, Social Mobility

Kaynakça

• Acemoglu, D., and Restrepo, P. (2017). Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation. American Economic Review, 107(5), 174-179.
• Allianz. (2010). The sixth Kondratieff long waves of prosperity. https://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/migration/media/press/document/other/kondratieff_en.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Arntz, M., Gregory, T., and Zierahn, U. (2016). The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries: A comparative analysis, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://doi.org/10.1787/5jlz9h56dvq7-en. adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Autor, D. H. (2013). The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1553-1597.
• Autor, D. H. (2015). Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 3-30. doi:10.1257/jep.29.3.3
• Bessen, J. (2018). AI and Jobs: The role of demand. https://www.nber.org/papers/w24235
• Bilgin, E., and Yöney, E. (2023). Dijitalleşme süreci ve kayıt dışı ekonomi üzerine etkileri. A. Pınar & E. Bilgin (Ed.), Bilişim çağında dijital dönüşüm ve ekonomi (41-75). Ankara: Turhan Kitabevi.
• Brynjolfsson, E., and McAfee, A. (2014). The second machine age: Work, progress, and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies: WW Norton & Company.
• Bughin, J., Hazan, E., Ramaswamy, S., Chui, M., Allas, T., Dahlstrom, P., Henke, N.,Trench, M. (2017). Artificial intelligence: The next digital frontier? https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/advanced%20electronics/our%20insights/how%20artificial%20intelligence%20can%20deliver%20real%20value%20to%20companies/mgi-artificial-intelligence-discussion-paper.ashx adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Frey, C. B., and Osborne, M. A. (2017). The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 114, 254-280.
• Goos, M., Manning, A., and Salomons, A. (2014). Explaining job polarization: Routine-biased technological change and offshoring. American Economic Review, 104(8), 2509-2526.
• IFR. (2022). World Robotics 2022. https://ifr.org/downloads/press2018/2022_WR_extended_version.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
• IMF. (2023). The Power and Perils of the “Artificial Hand”: Considering AI Through the Ideas of Adam Smith. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/06/05/sp060523-fdmd-ai-adamsmith adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Kaplan, A. M., and Haenlein, M. (2010). Users of the world, unite! The challenges and opportunities of Social Media.
• Business Horizons, 53(1), 59-68. doi:10.1016/j.bushor.2009.09.003
• Keynes, J. M. (1930). Economic possibilities for our grandchildren Essays in persuasion (pp. 321-332): Springer.
• Kondratiev, N. D. (1925). The major economic cycles. Voprosy Konjunktury, 1(1), 28-79.
• Korinek, A., and Stiglitz, J. E. (2018). Artificial intelligence and its implications for income distribution and unemployment The economics of artificial intelligence: An agenda (pp. 349-390): University of Chicago Press.
• Korotayev, A. V., and Tsirel, S. V. (2010). A spectral analysis of world GDP dynamics: Kondratieff waves, Kuznets swings, Juglar and Kitchin cycles in global economic development, and the 2008–2009 economic crisis. Structure and Dynamics, 4(1).
• Kuzior, A. (2022). Technological unemployment in the perspective of Industry 4.0. Virtual Economics, 5(1), 7-23.
• Lima, Y., Barbosa, C. E., dos Santos, H. S., and de Souza, J. M. (2021). Understanding technological unemployment: a review of causes, consequences, and solutions. Societies, 11(2), 50.
• Manyika, J., Lund, S., and Bughin, J. (2016). Digital Globalization: The New Era Global Flows. https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/mckinsey%20digital/our%20insights/digital%20globalization%20the%20new%20era%20of%20global%20flows/mgi-digital-globalization-full-report.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
• Marinescu, I. (2018). No strings attached: The behavioral effects of US unconditional cash transfer programs. https://www.nber.org/papers/w24337 adresinden edinilmiştir.
• McCarthy, J., Minsky, M. L., Rochester, N., and Shannon, C. E. (2006). A proposal for the dartmouth summer research project on artificial intelligence, August 31, 1955. AI magazine, 27(4), 12.
• Mokyr, J., Vickers, C., and Ziebarth, N. L. (2015). The history of technological anxiety and the future of economic growth: Is this time different? Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29(3), 31-50.
• Oxford. (2019). How robots change the world-what automation really means for jobs and productivity. June 2019.
• Oxford. (2023a). Artificial Intelligence. https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803095426960
• Oxford. (2023b). Technological Unemployment. https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803102813279
• Perez, C. (2003). Technological revolutions and financial capital: Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Peters, M. A. (2020). Beyond technological unemployment: the future of work (Vol. 52, pp. 485-491): Taylor & Francis.
• Russell, S. J. (2010). Artificial intelligence a modern approach: Pearson Education, Inc.
• Schumpeter, J. A. (1939). Business cycles (Vol. 1): Mcgraw-hill New York.
• Standing, G. (2017). Basic income: And how we can make it happen: Penguin UK.
• Topol, E. (2019). Deep medicine: how artificial intelligence can make healthcare human again: Hachette UK.
• World Economic Forum (2018). Towards a reskilling revolution: A future of jobs for all. https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_FOW_Reskilling_Revolution.pdf adresinden edinilmiştir.
• World Economic Forum (2023). Future of Jobs Report. https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-future-of-jobs-report-2023?gclid=EAIaIQobChMI8ZKd-fHMgQMVa1aRBR3WtwM7EAAYASAAEgKUePD_BwE adresinden edinilmiştir.

Toplam 36 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Kaynak Göster

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