THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL DEBT, POPULATION GROWTH AND INFLATION ON UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 1 – 14, 31.07.2024

Shehzada Ghulam Abbas Shahzada Rahim Abbas Anika Munir

Öz

Bu çalışma, 26 gelişmekte olan ülkede dış borç, nüfus artışı ve enflasyon ile işsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Çalışma, değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmek için 2010-2021 yılları arasındaki verileri ve panel veri modellerini (Sabit Etkiler Modeli, Rassal Etkiler Modeli ve Pooled OLS Modeli) kullanmaktadır. Sonuçlar, dış borcun her üç modelde de işsizlik üzerinde anlamlı ve pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Benzer şekilde, GSYH büyümesinin işsizlik oranı üzerinde azaltıcı ve anlamlı bir etkisi vardır, bu da söz konusu 26 gelişmekte olan ülke için büyümenin istihdam esnekliğinin yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Çalışmanın bir diğer önemli bulgusu ise doğrudan yabancı yatırım, enflasyon ve nüfus artışının işsizlik üzerinde anlamlı olmayan bir etkiye sahip olmasıdır. Çalışma, işsizlik sorununu ele almak için bu gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sağlam makroekonomik politikalar ve etkin borç yönetimi önermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış Borç, İşsizlik, Panel Veri, Panel Birim Kökler

Kaynakça

  • Abugamea, G. (2018). Determinants of Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Palestine, MPRA Paper. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/89424/ (Accessed: 13th October 2023).
  • Alam, J., Alam, Q. N., & Hoque, T. (2020). Impact of GDP, inflation, population growth and FDI on unemployment:A study on Bangladesh economy. African Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 3(3), 67-79.
  • Alisa, M. (2015). The relationship between inflation and unemployment: A theoretical discussion. Journal of International Business and Economics, 3(2), 89-97.
  • Alnaa, S. E., & Matey, J. (2023). Dynamic relationship between external debt and unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 1(634), 137-152.
  • Aurangzeb, D., & Asif, K. (2013). Factors effecting unemployment: A cross country analysis. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 3(1), 219-230.
  • Barros, L. A. (2022). The relationship between inflation and unemployment in the USA in the surplus approach. Atlantic Review of Economics (ARoEc), 5(2), 1-25.
  • Bittencourt, M. (2012). Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 333-340.
  • Cahyadin, M., & Ratwianingsih, L. (2020). External debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected ASEAN countries. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 21(1), 16-36.
  • Doğan, T. T. (2012). Macroeconomic variables and unemployment: The case of Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(1), 71-78.
  • Doğru, B. (2013). The link between unemployment rate and real output in Eurozone: A panel error correction approach. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 99, 94-103.
  • Donaldson, J. R., Piacentino, G., & Thakor, A. (2019). Household debt overhang and unemployment. The Journal of Finance, 74(3), 1473-1502.
  • Folawewo, A. O., & Adeboje, O. M. (2017). Macroeconomic determinants of unemployment: Empirical evidence from economic community of West African States. African Development Review, 29(2), 197-210.
  • Hasan, A., & Zaheer, R. (2022). Factors responsible for unemployment in Pakistan: A time series evidence. Journal of Research in Social Development and Sustainability, 1(2), 1-12.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • ILO. (2023). Mutually reinforcing crises have worsened the global employment divide. ILO Monitor on the World of Work.
  • Kreishan, F. (2011). Economic growth and unemployment: An empirical analysis. Journal of Social Sciences, 7(2), 228-231.
  • Levina, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Maqbool, S., Sattar, A., Mahmood, T., & Minallah, M. N. (2013). Determinants of unemployment empirical evidences from Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 51(2), 191-207.
  • Moosa, I. (2008). Economic growth and unemployment in Arab Countries: Is Okun's law valid?. Journal of Development and Economic Policies, 10(2), 5-23.
  • Oshora, B., Nguse, T., Fekete-Farkas, M., & Zeman, Z. (2021). Economic growth, investment, population growth and unemployment in Ethiopia. In SHS Web of Conferences (Vol. 90, p. 01013). EDP Sciences.
  • Sahnoun, M., & Abdennadher, C. (2019). Causality between inflation, economic growth and unemployment in North African countries. Economic Alternatives, 1, 77-92.
  • Sajjad, I., Bilal, M., & Khan, D. M. (2018). Investigating the impact of external debt on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. Journal of Business and Tourism, 4(2), 41-51.
  • Shabbir, A., Kousar, S., & Alam, M. Z. (2020). Factors affecting level of unemployment in South Asia. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 37(1), 1-25.
  • Shuaibu, M., Muhammad, H. M., Abdullahi, S. I., & Gwazawa, U. G. (2021). Impact of public debt on inflation and unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL vector error correction model. Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 6(5), 91-98.
  • Siddiqa, A. (2021). Determinants of unemployment in selected developing countries: A panel data analysis. Journal of Economic Impact, 3(1), 19-26.
  • Strat, V. A., Davidescu, A., & Paul, A. M. (2015). FDI and the unemployment – A causality analysis for the latest EU members. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 635-643.
  • Torres-Reyna, O. (2007). Panel data analysis fixed and random effects using Stata (v. 6.0, pp. 48-51). Princeton University.
  • Trimurti, C. P., & Komalasari, Y. (2014). Determinants of unemployment: Empirical evidences from 7 Province in Indonesia. Scientific Research Journal (SCIRJ), 2(8), 5-9.
  • Wajid, A., & Kalim, R. (2013). The impact of inflation and economic growth on unemployment: Time series evidence from Pakistan. 3rd International Conference UMT, Lahore.

THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL DEBT, POPULATION GROWTH AND INFLATION ON UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 1 – 14, 31.07.2024

Shehzada Ghulam Abbas Shahzada Rahim Abbas Anika Munir

Öz

This paper investigates the relationship between external debt, population growth, and inflation with unemployment in 26 developing countries. The study uses data from 2010 to 2021 and panel data models (fixed, random, and pooled) to analyze the relationship between the variables. Results show that external debt has a significant and positive impact on unemployment across all three models. Similarly, GDP growth has a reducing and significant impact on the unemployment rate, which shows high employment elasticity of growth in the case of these 26 developing countries. Another important finding of the study is that foreign direct investment, inflation, and population growth have a non-significant impact on unemployment. The paper suggests robust macroeconomic policies and effective debt management in these developing countries to address the issue of unemployment.

Anahtar Kelimeler

External Debt, Unemployment, Panel Data, Panel Unit Roots

Kaynakça

  • Abugamea, G. (2018). Determinants of Unemployment: Empirical Evidence from Palestine, MPRA Paper. https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/89424/ (Accessed: 13th October 2023).
  • Alam, J., Alam, Q. N., & Hoque, T. (2020). Impact of GDP, inflation, population growth and FDI on unemployment:A study on Bangladesh economy. African Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 3(3), 67-79.
  • Alisa, M. (2015). The relationship between inflation and unemployment: A theoretical discussion. Journal of International Business and Economics, 3(2), 89-97.
  • Alnaa, S. E., & Matey, J. (2023). Dynamic relationship between external debt and unemployment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Theoretical and Applied Economics, 1(634), 137-152.
  • Aurangzeb, D., & Asif, K. (2013). Factors effecting unemployment: A cross country analysis. International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, 3(1), 219-230.
  • Barros, L. A. (2022). The relationship between inflation and unemployment in the USA in the surplus approach. Atlantic Review of Economics (ARoEc), 5(2), 1-25.
  • Bittencourt, M. (2012). Inflation and economic growth in Latin America: Some panel time-series evidence. Economic Modelling, 29(2), 333-340.
  • Cahyadin, M., & Ratwianingsih, L. (2020). External debt, exchange rate, and unemployment in selected ASEAN countries. Jurnal Ekonomi & Studi Pembangunan, 21(1), 16-36.
  • Doğan, T. T. (2012). Macroeconomic variables and unemployment: The case of Turkey. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 2(1), 71-78.
  • Doğru, B. (2013). The link between unemployment rate and real output in Eurozone: A panel error correction approach. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 99, 94-103.
  • Donaldson, J. R., Piacentino, G., & Thakor, A. (2019). Household debt overhang and unemployment. The Journal of Finance, 74(3), 1473-1502.
  • Folawewo, A. O., & Adeboje, O. M. (2017). Macroeconomic determinants of unemployment: Empirical evidence from economic community of West African States. African Development Review, 29(2), 197-210.
  • Hasan, A., & Zaheer, R. (2022). Factors responsible for unemployment in Pakistan: A time series evidence. Journal of Research in Social Development and Sustainability, 1(2), 1-12.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • ILO. (2023). Mutually reinforcing crises have worsened the global employment divide. ILO Monitor on the World of Work.
  • Kreishan, F. (2011). Economic growth and unemployment: An empirical analysis. Journal of Social Sciences, 7(2), 228-231.
  • Levina, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1), 1-24.
  • Maqbool, S., Sattar, A., Mahmood, T., & Minallah, M. N. (2013). Determinants of unemployment empirical evidences from Pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 51(2), 191-207.
  • Moosa, I. (2008). Economic growth and unemployment in Arab Countries: Is Okun's law valid?. Journal of Development and Economic Policies, 10(2), 5-23.
  • Oshora, B., Nguse, T., Fekete-Farkas, M., & Zeman, Z. (2021). Economic growth, investment, population growth and unemployment in Ethiopia. In SHS Web of Conferences (Vol. 90, p. 01013). EDP Sciences.
  • Sahnoun, M., & Abdennadher, C. (2019). Causality between inflation, economic growth and unemployment in North African countries. Economic Alternatives, 1, 77-92.
  • Sajjad, I., Bilal, M., & Khan, D. M. (2018). Investigating the impact of external debt on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. Journal of Business and Tourism, 4(2), 41-51.
  • Shabbir, A., Kousar, S., & Alam, M. Z. (2020). Factors affecting level of unemployment in South Asia. Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 37(1), 1-25.
  • Shuaibu, M., Muhammad, H. M., Abdullahi, S. I., & Gwazawa, U. G. (2021). Impact of public debt on inflation and unemployment in Nigeria: An ARDL vector error correction model. Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, 6(5), 91-98.
  • Siddiqa, A. (2021). Determinants of unemployment in selected developing countries: A panel data analysis. Journal of Economic Impact, 3(1), 19-26.
  • Strat, V. A., Davidescu, A., & Paul, A. M. (2015). FDI and the unemployment – A causality analysis for the latest EU members. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 635-643.
  • Torres-Reyna, O. (2007). Panel data analysis fixed and random effects using Stata (v. 6.0, pp. 48-51). Princeton University.
  • Trimurti, C. P., & Komalasari, Y. (2014). Determinants of unemployment: Empirical evidences from 7 Province in Indonesia. Scientific Research Journal (SCIRJ), 2(8), 5-9.
  • Wajid, A., & Kalim, R. (2013). The impact of inflation and economic growth on unemployment: Time series evidence from Pakistan. 3rd International Conference UMT, Lahore.

Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Politika ve Yönetim (Diğer)
BölümAraştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Shehzada Ghulam Abbas ANKARA HACI BAYRAM VELI UNIVERSITY 0000-0002-6806-4508 Türkiye

Shahzada Rahim Abbas ERCIYES UNIVERSITY Türkiye

Anika Munir Université de Technologie de Compiègne France

Yayımlanma Tarihi31 Temmuz 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi21 Kasım 2023
Kabul Tarihi15 Aralık 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APAAbbas, S. G., Abbas, S. R., & Munir, A. (2024). THE IMPACT OF EXTERNAL DEBT, POPULATION GROWTH AND INFLATION ON UNEMPLOYMENT: EVIDENCE FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES. Economics Business and Organization Research, 6(1), 1-14.

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